zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and interannual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.Keywords Indian summer monsoon · RegCM4.2 · RegCM4.3 · CORDEX · Moisture flux · Rainfall homogenous zones · Surface net downward shortwave flux
during the contrasting monsoon years are also close to their respective observed values. Temporal CCs between the TT over Tibet, Pakistan and Central India during the summer monsoon season and gridded ISMR values reveals that the TT over Pakistan has been better correlated with the ISMR than those over Tibet and Central India. This relationship has been well supported by the model simulations.
This study assesses the performance of regional climate model version 4 (RegCM4) in simulating the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK). It also examines any possible relationship between the onset dates with the summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole as well as each grid points of the India land points and also the moisture inflow into Indian subcontinent. A 30-year long simulation starting from 1979 till 2008 was carried out with the lateral boundary forcings provided by European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 25 km horizontal resolution. The simulated climatological MOK date is found to be 28th May, while as per the India Meteorological Department, climatological normal onset date is 1st June. The model has performed well in simulating the inter-annual variation of MOK during the study period. The correlation coefficient between model simulated and observed MOK is 0.83 significant at 95% confidence level. In both model and observations, the MOK is weakly correlated with All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Again, the model skill was examined through equitable threat score (ETS). The ETS score is high for normal (0.48) and delayed (0.42) onset years, while the score is very low in early onset years. The spatial patterns of rainfall over central India are very similar in early and normal onset years. The model has performed well in reproducing the moisture inflow in to the Indian subcontinent from all the directions in most of the years, but there is no one-to-one relation between different categories of MOK years with total rainfall and net moisture inflow. Based on this study, it is found that RegCM4 reproduces different aspects of MOK reasonably well. K E Y W O R D Sequitable threat score, ERA-interim, monsoon onset over Kerala, moisture Inflow, RegCM4
It has been reported that the occurrence of "Heat wave" conditions is increasing in different parts of the world. This increase in heat extremes is expected to lead to increasing levels of discomfort to the human beings. In addition, there are loss of working hours, adverse health impacts and deaths depending on the severity and duration of the heat extremes. It is well known that meteorologically it is not merely the rise in temperature which causes human discomfort. Temperature coupled with high humidity, low wind and impervious clothing form major causes of discomfort. Above all, the type of physical activities being undertaken in these adverse conditions is one of the important factors to decide the stress and strain encountered by a person. Studies on biometeorology have been carried out by several scientists for over a century and a number of heat indices have been developed which quantify the level of discomfort or heat stress in their working environments. Today, observed meteorological parameters as well as corresponding model outputs are freely available from several sources which can be used for estimating the values of heat indices at any location. Both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods are very useful in this regard. In this study, some of the commonly used heat indices have been calculated for the four major cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata using daily observed parameters from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1975 to 2005. Same indices are also calculated based on the simulated values from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) over the same period. The RegCM simulated fields have been obtained from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiments (CORDEX) over the South Asia domain. Comparison of characteristics of the four selected indices based on IMD observed data and RegCM simulations leads to the inference that there are several similarities between the two sets of data in terms of their annual cycles and inter-annual variations. This exercise conclusively shows the advantages of dynamical downscaling. Further, results of this study encourage for a comprehensive work in the future for the country wide mapping and projection of heat indices based on model simulations, development of suitable heat indices and classification of comfort classes for their use in warning system for human health related issues in India.
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