We analyze the information content of a digital footprint—that is, information that users leave online simply by accessing or registering on a Web site—for predicting consumer default. We show that even simple, easily accessible variables from a digital footprint match the information content of credit bureau scores. A digital footprint complements rather than substitutes for credit bureau information and affects access to credit and reduces default rates. We discuss the implications for financial intermediaries’ business models, access to credit for the unbanked, and the behavior of consumers, firms, and regulators in the digital sphere. (JEL G20, G21, G29)

We analyze the information content of the digital footprint-information that people leave online simply by accessing or registering on a website-for predicting consumer default. Using more than 250,000 observations, we show that even simple, easily accessible variables from the digital footprint equal or exceed the information content of credit bureau scores. Furthermore, the discriminatory power for unscorable customers is very similar to that of scorable customers. Our results have potentially wide implications for financial intermediaries' business models, for access to credit for the unbanked, and for the behavior of consumers, firms, and regulators in the digital sphere.

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This paper empirically investigates the relationship between managerial overconfidence and writeoffs following CEO turnover. Incoming CEOs often engage in big bath accounting as they dispose of poorly performing projects. Overconfident managers overestimate their abilities and consequently have upwardly biased expectations concerning future firm performance. I hypothesise that overconfident CEOs are less likely to engage in a big bath following managerial change. The empirical results confirm this hypothesis by showing that big baths at CEO turnover are significantly less frequent among overconfident CEOs.