An important epidemiological consequence of aggregated host-parasite associations occurs when parasites are vectors of pathogens. Those hosts that attract many vectors will tend to be the focus of transmission. But to what extent, and can we identify characteristics of these key hosts? We investigated these questions with respect to the host-tick relationship of the yellow-necked mouse, Apodemus flavicollis, a critical host in the maintenance of the zoonotic disease, tick-borne encephalitis. Transmission of the virus occurs when ticks feed in a 'co-feeding' aggregation. Thus, the number and frequency of co-feeding groups provides an estimate of the potential rate of virus transmission. We recorded the spatio-temporal variations in co-feeding on a population of rodents in conjunction with recording individual host characteristics. Using Lorenz curves, we revealed conformation of tick-borne encephalitis transmission potential to the 20/80 Rule, where the 20% of hosts most infested with ticks were accountable for 80% of transmission potential. Hosts in the transmission cohort were identified as the sexually mature males of high body mass. Therefore control efforts targeted at this group would substantially reduce transmission potential compared to non-targeted control of the population, which resulted in a linear reduction in transmission potential. Focusing on the 'wrong' functional group would have little impact upon transmission potential until a considerable proportion of the population had been subject to control. However, individuals can change their functional status over time making it difficult to predict the contribution of these individuals to future transmission. q

BackgroundThe Western Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus often causes devastating or lethal disease. In Europe, the number of human TBE cases has increased dramatically over the last decade, risk areas are expanding and new foci are being discovered every year. The early localisation of new TBE foci and the identification of the main risk factors associated with disease emergence represent a priority for the public health community. Although a number of socio-economic parameters have been suggested to explain TBE upsurges in eastern Europe, the principal driving factors in relatively stable western European countries have not been identified.Methodology/Principal FindingsIn this paper, we analyse the correlation between the upsurge of TBE in 17 alpine provinces in northern Italy from 1992 to 2006 with climatic variables, forest structure (as a proxy for small mammal reservoir host abundance), and abundance of the principal large vertebrate tick host (roe deer), using datasets available for the last 40 years. No significant differences between the pattern of changes in climatic variables in provinces where TBE has emerged compared to provinces were no clinical TBE cases have been observed to date. Instead, the best model for explaining the increase in TBE incidence in humans in this area include changes in forest structure, in particular the ratio of coppice to high stand forest, and the density of roe deer.Conclusion/SignificanceSubstantial changes in vegetation structure that improve habitat suitability for the main TBE reservoir hosts (small mammals), as well as an increase in roe deer abundance due to changes in land and wildlife management practices, are likely to be among the most crucial factors affecting the circulation potential of Western TBE virus and, consequently, the risk of TBE emergence in humans in western Europe. We believe our approach will be useful in predicting TBE risk on a wider scale.

Deer support high tick intensities, perpetuating tick populations, but they do not support tick-borne pathogen transmission, so are dilution hosts. We test the hypothesis that absence of deer (loss of a dilution host) will result in either an increase or a reduction in tick density, and that the outcome is scale dependent. We use a complementary methodological approach starting with meta-analysis, followed up by a field experiment. Meta-analysis indicated that larger deer exclosures reduce questing (host-seeking) tick density, but as the exclosure becomes smaller (<2.5 ha) the questing tick density is increased (amplified). To determine the consequences for tick-borne pathogen transmission we carried out a field experiment, comparing the intensity of ticks that fed on hosts competent for tickborne pathogen transmission (rodents) in two small (<1 ha) deer exclosures and their replicated controls. Intensity of larval ticks on rodents was not significantly different between treatments, but nymph intensity, the tick stage responsible for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) transmission, was higher in deer exclosures. TBE seropositive rodents were found in a deer exclosure but not in the controls. We propose that localized absence of deer (loss of a dilution host) increases tick feeding on rodents, leading to the potential for tick-borne disease hotspots.

The spatial and temporal distribution of hantavirus and arenavirus antibody-positive wild rodents in Trentino, Italy, was studied using immunofluorescence assays (IFA) in two long-term sites trapped in 2000-2003, and six other sites trapped in 2002. The overall hantavirus seroprevalence in the bank voles, Clethrionomys glareolus (n=229) screened for Puumala virus (PUUV) antibodies was 0.4%, and that for Apodemus flavicollis mice (n=1416) screened for Dobrava virus (DOBV) antibodies was 0.2%. Antibodies against lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) were found in 82 (5.6%) of the 1472 tested rodents; the seroprevalence being 6.1% in A. flavicollis (n=1181), 3.3% in C. glareolus (n=276), and 14.3% in Microtus arvalis (n=7). Of the serum samples of 488 forestry workers studied by IFA, 12 were LCMV-IgG positive (2.5%) and one DOBV-IgG positive (0.2%), however, the latter could not be confirmed DOBV-specific with a neutralization assay. Our results show a widespread distribution but low prevalence of DOBV in Trentino, and demonstrate that the arenavirus antibodies are a common finding in several other rodent species besides the house mouse.

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