There was developed a methodological approach for carrying out an integrated estimation of the sustainable development socioeconomic parameters based on the UN's current information base. The article proposes a methodology and tools for economic and mathematical modelling to estimate the degree of international trade and investment relations development, the degree of life expectancy, the standard of living and prosperity of international entities under the influence of sources of economic growth. Based on the simulation results an analysis of the general status of the 189 world countries according to the sources of economic growth has been carried out. In order to obtain scientifically grounded results, the paper used general scientific and special methods of research, such as: methods of analysis and synthesis, system approach and abstraction, modelling (fuzzy logic model, a method of Saati hierarchies, Mamdani algorithm), quantitative and qualitative comparison methods, a method of theoretical generalization. The approach proposed in this article can be applied when developing the country's national economic development strategy in the direction of achieving sustainable development.
Based on the analysis of methods for quantitative assessment of the economic potential of regions in the context of available resources, the direction of this process is systematized in the following areas: economic-geographical, production, demographic, information and macromodels. The necessary characteristics of the economic potential of cities and settlements, including the territory, population, production, investments and loans have been formulated. They reveal the main components of existing opportunities, which make it possible to create a basis for an objective assessment of the potential for socio-economic improvement, its acceleration and increase in effectiveness. For a wide coverage of the directions of changes and reflecting their dynamics, it is proposed to take into account the influence of the time factor on the expected development results based on the financial and mathematical apparatus known in the investment theory, reflecting the change in the value of cash flows in different periods of operation. Based on the diversification of regional economies, including economic, technical, social, innovative, investment, scientific and technical and other areas of activity, attention is focused on a comprehensive analysis of all components when calculating the potential. The article formulates the sequence of process stages of assessing the communities’ resource potential. It is proposed to form initial information in the context of three blocks: resource, economic development, growth reserves. This allows you to structure data based on the main aspects of the availability and reproduction of resources, which will provide a rational choice of development strategy. A vision of the assessment system characteristics has been formed, which is obliged to encompass the main constituent elements, which will make it possible to establish the nature of development and the necessary requirements for it. To generalize the assessment, methods are classified that provide the final characteristics, capabilities and scope of their application. The system of indicators for assessing the efficiency of using the economic potential of the region is considered, which includes two main blocks, target and resource.
Significant attention is paid to increasing the efficiency of using resources by business entities due to the growing dependence between economic growth and the number of consumed resources, problems with access to various types of resources on the market, as well as their exhaustion in the face of growing needs. At the same time, various digitization tools are widely used to solve these problems. This paper considers artificial neural networks as a tool for modelling and forecasting the level of resource security in the economic activity of an enterprise, which is divided into separate functional blocks (production, personnel, finance). To this end, a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) was used by constructing and training a network on several possible architectures in order to select the one with the highest classification quality. In the process of training, testing and verification of MLP networks, 32 indicators were used as input data, characterizing the state and efficiency of using various types of enterprise resources, for 85 enterprises over the five years of their operation. The initial data were the values of the safety zone, which were set separately for each indicator, subsystem and enterprise using economic-mathematical modelling on the basis of determining the acceptable limits of indicator fluctuations. As a result, four MLP networks were selected (one network for each of the three functional subsystems, as well as one for the enterprise as a whole), which were characterized by the highest value of quality at each stage of calculations (training, testing, verification). The performed calculations proved that artificial neural networks can be a useful and convenient tool for determining the security level of an enterprise in various directions of its economic activity (types of consumed or involved resources), and therefore can be more widely used by business entities to increase the validity of management decisions.
Goal is the improvement of scientific-methodical and practical recommendations for forecasting trends in the development of the stock market with tools for analyzing stock prices and exchange rates to substantiate options for investors' actions and take into account dynamic signals, with the help of which strategic approaches are formed in various situations of market fluctuations. The next scientific methods of research were applied. In the process of achieving the goal, the following methods were used: analytical (observation, comparison, grouping) when price dynamics were studied, changes were predicted and the time of asset purchase and sale was determined; graphic - for illustrating market properties, visual representation of the price situation, identifying points of formation and changes in investment decisions; modeling for the development of options for investors' actions in various situations of the dynamics of market characteristics and the formation of behavioral strategies. The maim results are the next. The tools of technical analysis of exchange prices and exchange rates are detailed, taking into account the essence of the underlying methods, the principle of action, the time of detection, the nature of changes, and the degree of importance in the formation of an investment decision. The mechanism of using indicators to demonstrate to investors the current situation on the market and to provide signals for entering a position with a delay and oscillators in order to timely predict a market reversal and to determine such characteristics of price dynamics as the speed of movement, momentum, patterns of oscillation and development of action options is analyzed. Methodological recommendations for the calculation of indicators that smooth fluctuations in price charts by averaging over a certain period based on moving averages for the accurate determination of trading zones, identifying trends and market analysis have been clarified. Scientific novelty are the next. The classification of tools for technical analysis of stock prices and exchange rates has been specified, taking into account their essence, clarity of results, the degree of detailing of characteristics, and the properties and peculiarities of the use of individual groups for the justification of investment decisions on the stock market have been determined. Practical significance is grounded on the developed scientific-methodical and practical recommendations will contribute to the deepening of the working out of options for the actions of investors in various situations of the dynamics of the stock market characteristics based on the identification of trends, the construction and interpretation of graphic models, the forecast of the probability of the continuation or change of the identified trends.
Мета. Удосконалення науково-методичних і практичних рекомендацій щодо прогнозування тенденцій розвитку фондового ринку інструментами аналізу біржових цін та курсів для обґрунтування варіантів дій інвесторів та врахування сигналів динаміки, за допомогою яких формуються стратегічні підходи в різноманітних ситуаціях коливань ринку. Методики. В процесі досягнення поставленої мети використано методи: аналітичні (спостереження, порівняння, групування) при досліджені динаміки цін, прогнозуванні змін та встановленні часу купівлі-продажу активів; графічний – для ілюстрації властивостей ринку, наочного подання цінової ситуації, виявлення точок формування та зміни інвестиційних рішень; моделювання для розробки варіантів дій інвесторів в різноманітних ситуаціях динаміки характеристики ринку та формування стратегії поведінки. Результати. Деталізовано інструменти технічного аналізу біржових цін та курсів з урахуванням сутності методів покладених в основу, принципу дії, часу виявлення, характеру змін, ступеню важливості у формуванні інвестиційного рішення. Проаналізовано механізм використання індикаторів для демонстрації інвесторам поточної ситуації на ринку і надання сигналів на вхід у позицію із запізненням та осциляторів з метою своєчасного передбачення розвороту ринку і визначення таких характеристик динаміки цін як швидкість руху, імпульсу, закономірності коливання і напрацювання варіантів дій. Уточнено методичні рекомендації з розрахунку індикаторів, що вирівнюють коливання цінових графіків шляхом усереднення за певним періодом на основі ковзних середніх для точного визначення торгових зон, виявлення тенденцій та аналізу ринку. Наукова новизна. Уточнено класифікацію інструментів технічного аналізу біржових цін та курсів з урахуванням їх сутності, наочності результатів, ступеня деталізації характеристик та визначено властивості і особливості використання окремих груп для обґрунтування інвестиційних рішень на фондовому ринку. Практична значимість. Розроблені науково-методичні та практичні рекомендації сприятимуть поглибленню проробки варіантів дій інвесторів в різноманітних ситуаціях динаміки характеристик фондового ринку на основі виявлення тенденцій, побудови та тлумачення графічних моделей, прогнозу ймовірності продовження чи зміни виявлених трендів.
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