This work presents a text mining context and its use for a deep analysis of the messages delivered by the politicians. Specifically, we deal with an expert systems-based exploration of the rhetoric dynamics of a large collection of US Presidents' speeches, ranging from Washington to Trump. In particular, speeches are viewed as complex expert systems whose structures can be effectively analyzed through rank-size laws. The methodological contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we develop a text mining-based procedure for the construction of the dataset by using a web scraping routine on the Miller Center website -the repository collecting the speeches. Second, we explore the implicit structure of the discourse data by implementing a rank-size procedure over the individual speeches, being the words of each speech ranked in terms of their frequencies. The scientific significance of the proposed combination of text-mining and rank-size approaches can be found in its flexibility and generality, which let it be reproducible to a wide set of expert systems and text mining contexts. The usefulness of the proposed method and the speech subsequent analysis is demonstrated by the findings themselves. Indeed, in terms of impact, it is worth noting that interesting conclusions of social, political and linguistic nature on how 45 United States Presidents, from April 30, 1789 till February 28, 2017 delivered political messages can be carried out. Indeed, the proposed analysis shows some remarkable regularities, not only inside a given speech, but also among different speeches. Moreover, under a purely methodological perspective, the presented contribution suggests possible ways of generating a linguistic decision-making algorithm.
In Italy, the elections occur often, indeed almost every year the citizens are involved in a democratic choice for deciding leaders of different administrative entities. Sometimes the citizens are called to vote for filling more than one office in more than one administrative body. This phenomenon has occurred 35 times after 1948; it creates the peculiar condition of having the same sample of people expressing decisions on political bases at the same time. Therefore, the Italian contemporaneous ballots constitute the occasion to measure coherence and chaos in the way of expressing political opinion. In this paper, we address all the Italian elections that occurred between 1948 and 2018. We collect the number of votes per party at each administrative level and we treat each election as a manifestation of a complex system. Then, we use the Shannon entropy and the Gini Index to study the degree of disorder manifested during different types of elections at the municipality level. A particular focus is devoted to the contemporaneous elections. Such cases implicate different disorder dynamics in the contemporaneous ballots, when different administrative level are involved. Furthermore, some features that characterize different entropic regimes have emerged.
This paper is devoted to assess the presence of some regularities in the magnitudes of the earthquakes in Italy between January 24 th , 2016 and January 24 th , 2017, and to propose an earthquakes cost indicator. The considered data includes the catastrophic events in Amatrice and in Marche region. To our purpose, we implement two typologies of rank-size analysis: the classical Zipf-Mandelbrot law and the so-called universal law proposed by Cerqueti and Ausloos (2016). The proposed generic measure of the economic impact of earthquakes moves from the assumption of the existence of a cause-effect relation between earthquakes magnitudes and economic costs. At this aim, we hypothesize that such a relation can be formalized in a functional way to show how infrastructure resistance affects the cost. Results allow us to clarify the impact of an earthquake on the social context and might serve for strengthen the struggle against the dramatic outcomes of such natural phenomena.
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