No abstract

This study proposes a simple methodology for assessing future-projected evolution of water cycle components (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and potential runoff) based on the two-level Palmer model of the soil and their impact on drought conditions at basin level. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used as drought metric. The catchments of rivers Arges, Mures, Prut, Siret and Somes (mid-and lower Danube basin) have been chosen as case studies. The present climate data consist of Romanian gridded dataset, monthly precipitation and values of streamflow from Romania and Republic of Moldova and potential evapotranspiration-related data from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia). We used as future projections five numerical experiments with regional models obtained through the EURO-CORDEX initiative, under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. The correlations between observed streamflow at the river basin outlets and PDSI-related components of the water cycle show that PDSI represents reasonably well processes taking place in the selected catchments. Depending on the specific scenario and catchment, droughts that in the Palmer classification were deemed as incipient, mild or severe under present climate will become a normal summer feature toward the end of this century, especially over catchments situated in the lower Danube basin.

Floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters that can cause large economic damage and endanger human lives. Flood forecasting is one of the flood risk mitigation measures serving to protect human lives and social estate. The Danube River Basin (DRB) is the world's most international river basin, flowing through the territory of 19 countries, covering more than 800,000 km 2 . The frequency of floods in the DRB increased in the last decades, urging the need for a more effective and harmonized regional and cross-border cooperation in the field of flood forecasting.Reliable and comprehensive hydrologic data are the basis of flood forecasting. This paper provides an overview of the national flood forecasting systems in the DRB.Detailed information about meteorological and hydrological measurements, flood modelling, forecasting, and flood warnings is provided for 12 countries that cover almost 95% of the total DRB area. Notably, significant differences exist among the countries in terms of the measuring network density, the models used as well as forecasting and warnings methodology. These differences can be attributed to the geographical and climatological setting, political situation, historical forecasting development, etc. It can be seen that there is still much room left for improvements of measurement networks (e.g., density, measured parameters) and models used that could be improved to enhance the flood forecasting in the DRB.

This National Drought Plan (NDP) is a product of the collaborative efforts between the United Nation Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the State Hydrometeorological Service of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment of the Republic of Moldova and the Research and Project Center “Eco Logistica”.

The scientific content of this article reflects a continuation of research on the temporal and spatial variability of weather-climatic phenomena on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, their frequency and changing trends at the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore, knowing the genesis and the spatio-temporal evolution of the weather-climatic phenomena, also requires the research of the degree of vulnerability and impact on the population, as well as on the different sectors of the national economy. These results are a convincing support for the elaboration and implementation of the national strategy and program for adaptation and mitigation of the consequences of environmental risks. Thus, the study correlates the manifestation regime of the weather-climatic phenomena of the last 15 years with the material damages expressed in financial units on agriculture, transport and other areas of economic activity in the Republic of Moldova.