It has been 30 years since Central Asian '-stan' countries, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, declared their independence in 1991. The Republics have chosen various transition paths from centrally planned to the market-based economic system. The research found that Central Asian leaders' protectionist policy, on top of the landlocked geographical environment, made trade costly, rendering these countries further isolated. Consequently, economic development slows down, unemployment increases and poverty rate extremes. Eventually, the isolated region (relatively, excluding Kazakhstan) is imprisoned in a low-income trap and framed into a vicious circle. As a solution for tackling high-trade costs in the region, this paper utilises the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling to simulate the impacts of implementing policy-targeted scenarios. The study presents that tariff reduction/elimination and trade facilitation policies could flourish the region by bringing significant economic welfare and robust GDP growth. The trade facilitation scenarios impact the region's economy much more positively than do tariff liberalisation scenarios.

PurposeThe economic recession of Kazakhstan coincided with its World Trade Organization (WTO) membership. Some experts claim that the membership exacerbated the recession further. This paper tries to assess whether the WTO entry hurt the economy of Kazakhstan. Design/Methodology/Approach The paper collects Kazakhstan's tariff commitments to WTO members from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) and WTO official websites. It then aggregates the data in terms of region and economic sectors. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to simulate the trade liberalization and the oil-price shock scenarios. Findings The economic modeling underlines that the WTO membership is not a cause for the economic recession of Kazakhstan. Instead, Kazakhstan's GDP and welfare rose as a result of WTO entry. In contrast, the oil price plunge, as well as Kazakhstan's involvement in Customs Union (CU), deteriorated the terms of trade and declined the economic growth.Research Implications This research is the first attempt to assess the effects of Kazakhstan's WTO membership using the GTAP CGE model. It shows that Kazakhstan's WTO entry was the right step toward global integration. It also signals that Kazakhstan should diversify its economy, export structure, and trade route in order not to face the next economic recession due to unexpected energy price plunge.

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