Incentivizing businesses to lower carbon emissions and trade back excess carbon allowances paved the way for rapid growth in carbon credit ETFs. The use of carbon allowances as a hedging alternative fueled this rally further, causing a shift to speculation and forming repetitive bubbles. Speculative bubbles are born from euphoria, yet, they are relatively predictable, provided their pattern matches the log periodic power law (LPPL) with specific stylized facts. A “Minsky moment” identifies a clear speculative bubble as a signal of financial system instability, while a “Social bubble” is regarded as relatively positive, increasing in the long run, infrastructure spending and development. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether various carbon credit bubbles during the pandemic period caused financial instability or had a positive impact (“Minsky” or “Social”). Particularly, we investigate the carbon credit bubble behavior in the ETF prices of KRBN, GRN (Global Carbon Credit tracking ETFs), and the SOLCARBT index during the COVID-19 pandemic period by adopting the log-periodic power law model (LPPL) methodology, which has been widely used, over the past decade, for detecting bubbles and crashes in various markets. In conclusion, these bubbles are social and propelled by the newfound interest in carbon credit trading, for obvious reasons.

Bubbles are usually chaotic but can be predictable, provided their formation matches the log periodic power law (LPPL) with unique stylized facts. We investigated Green Bubble behaviour in the stock prices of a selection of stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, those with the highest market capitalization from a basket of North American and European green energy or clean tech companies and the S&P Global Clean Energy Index. Moreover, the biggest Exchange Traded Fund (TAN) by market capitalization was also considered. The examined period is from 31 December 2019 to 11 October 2021, during which we detected 35 Green Bubbles. All of these followed the LPPL signature while calibrated through the 2013 reformulated LPPL model. In addition, the average drawdown emerged as four times that of the regular S&P-500 stock index (108% vs. 27%) under stressed conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic (stylized fact). Finally, the aftermaths of Green Bubbles, unlike regular bubbles, are not destructive, as these bubbles increase economic activity and infrastructure spending and are hence beneficial for holistic growth (described as Social Bubble Hypothesis). We document that there are benefits in adapting greener and more sustainable business models in energy production. Green and sustainable finance offers benefits and opportunities for stock exchanges, especially for energy stocks. As a result, many businesses are focusing on sustainability and adopting an eco-friendly business model, which helps the environment, helps sustainability and attracts investors.

PurposeThe objective of this paper was twofold-revisiting the in-kind public distribution system (PDS) – India's flagship food security intervention and seeking beneficiary perspectives on its efficacy. The feasibility of cash transfers as an alternative mechanism is also examined, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachPrimary and secondary data from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu were used. In-depth interviews with beneficiaries using phenomenology were conducted to evaluate their perception and willingness to shift to a cash-based PDS in the pre and post-pandemic periods. Secondary district-level data were also used to ascertain institutional preparedness for this shift.FindingsIn-depth interviews of 105 beneficiaries revealed valuable insights, which seem to have significantly changed post-pandemic. Beneficiaries in the post-pandemic period seem much more inclined toward cash transfers, though a combination of cash plus in-kind benefits seems to be strongly preferred. Secondary results pointed out to the lack of institutional preparedness in financial inclusion. The research suggested that while the existing PDS needs to be overhauled, policymakers should look at a model of cash plus in-kind transfers as a probable alternative to pure cash transfers.Originality/valueThere is a dearth of in-depth state-specific studies on beneficiary perception of PDS, and this is important since the economic and sociocultural milieu in each region is unique. Being the only state with universal food security, its experience could yield important insights for other states or even middle or low-income countries similar to India.

Social welfare systems across the developing world have witnessed a significant transformation in the last 20 years with direct cash transfers becoming an increasingly preferred means of tackling poverty and inequality. While this movement finds its roots in Latin America, a large number of developing countries including India have since modified their welfare systems, incorporating direct cash transfers as an alternative to in kind benefits and subsidies. India’s Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) system, which has been in existence since the past five years, has 316 schemes under its aegis now. While it would be premature to evaluate its success or failure, it would definitely be an interesting and worthwhile exercise to see how Indian states fare in terms of DBT. With Amartya Sen’s pathbreaking Capability Approach as the premise, this research is a unique attempt to explore and identify variables that determine and impact DBT transfers at the Indian state level using multiple regression. We find that literacy and the JAM (Jan-Dhan, Aadhaar, Mobile) Index emerge as significant variables impacting DBT transfers in states. This study contributes to the current literature on social welfare systems and highlights the importance of development architecture in emerging economies.

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