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ObjectiveAtrial fibrillation (AF) often progresses from paroxysmal AF (PAF) to more permanent forms. To improve personalised medicine, we aim to develop a new AF progression risk prediction model in patients with PAF.MethodsIn this interim-analysis of the Reappraisal of AF: Interaction Between HyperCoagulability, Electrical Remodelling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF study, patients with PAF undergoing extensive phenotyping at baseline and continuous rhythm monitoring during follow-up of ≥1 year were analysed. AF progression was defined as (1) progression to persistent or permanent AF or (2) progression of PAF with >3% burden increase. Multivariable analysis was done to identify predictors of AF progression.ResultsMean age was 65 (58–71) years, 179 (43%) were female. Follow-up was 2.2 (1.6–2.8) years, 51 of 417 patients (5.5%/year) showed AF progression. Multivariable analysis identified, PR interval, impaired left atrial function, mitral valve regurgitation and waist circumference to be associated with AF progression. Adding blood biomarkers improved the model (C-statistic from 0.709 to 0.830) and showed male sex, lower levels of factor XIIa:C1-esterase inhibitor and tissue factor pathway inhibitor, and higher levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 and peptidoglycan recognition protein 1 were associated with AF progression.ConclusionIn patients with PAF, AF progression occurred in 5.5%/year. Predictors for progression included markers for atrial remodelling, sex, mitral valve regurgitation, waist circumference and biomarkers associated with coagulation, inflammation, cardiomyocyte stretch and atherosclerosis. These prediction models may help to determine risk of AF progression and treatment targets, but validation is needed.Trial registration numberNCT02726698.

Aims Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) using ablation index (AI) incorporates stability, contact force (CF), time, and power. The CLOSE protocol combines AI and ≤6 mm interlesion distance. Safety concerns are raised about surround flow ablation catheters (STSF). To compare safety and effectiveness of an atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation strategy using AI vs. CLOSE protocol using STSF. Methods and results First cluster was treated using AI and second cluster using CLOSE. Procedural data, safety, and recurrence of any atrial tachycardia (AT) or AF >30 s were collected prospectively. All Classes 1c and III anti-arrhythmic drugs (AAD) were stopped after the blanking period. In total, all 215 consecutive patients [AI: 121 (paroxysmal: n = 97), CLOSE: n = 94 (paroxysmal: n = 74)] were included. Pulmonary vein isolation was reached in all in similar procedure duration (CLOSE: 107 ± 25 vs. AI: 102 ± 24 min; P = 0.1) and similar radiofrequency time (CLOSE: 36 ± 11 vs. AI: 37 ± 8 min; P = 0.4) but first pass isolation was higher in CLOSE vs. AI [left veins: 90% vs. 80%; P < 0.05 and right veins: 84% vs. 73%; P < 0.05]. Twelve-month off-AAD freedom of AF/AT was higher in CLOSE vs. AI [79% (paroxysmal: 85%) vs. 64% (paroxysmal: 68%); P < 0.05]. Only four patients (2%) without recurrence were on AAD during follow-up. Major complications were similar (CLOSE: 2.1% vs. AI: 2.5%; P = 0.87). Conclusion The CLOSE protocol is more effective than a PVI approach solely using AI, especially in paroxysmal AF. In this off-AAD study, 79% of patients were free from AF/AT during 12-month follow-up. The STSF catheter appears to be safe using conventional CLOSE targets.

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