IMPORTANCE There are limited data on mortality trends in young adults with heart failure (HF).OBJECTIVE To study the trends in HF-related mortality among young adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis retrospective cohort analysis used mortality data of young adults aged 15 to 44 years with HF listed as a contributing or underlying cause of death in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database from January 1999 to December 2019. Analysis took place in October 2021.EXPOSURES Age 15 to 44 years with HF listed as a contributing or underlying cause of death.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES HF-related age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100 000 US population stratified by sex, race and ethnicity, and geographic areas.RESULTS Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 61 729 HF-related deaths occurred in young adults. Of these, 38 629 (62.0%) were men and 23 460 (38.0%) were women, and 22 156 (35.9%) were Black, 6648 (10.8%) were Hispanic, and 30 145 (48.8%) were White. The overall AAMR per 100 000 persons for HF in young adults increased from 2.36 in 1999 to 3.16 in 2019. HF mortality increased in young men and women, with men having higher AAMRs throughout the study period. AAMR increased for all race and ethnicity groups, with Black adults having the highest AAMRs (6.41 in 1999 and 8.58 in 2019). AAMR for Hispanic adults and White adults increased from 1.62 to 2.04 and 1.83 to 2.45 over the same time period, respectively. Across most demographic and regional subgroups, HF-related mortality stayed stable or decreased between 1999 and 2012, followed by an increase between 2012 and 2019. There were significant regional differences in the burden of HF-related mortality, with states in the upper 90th percentile of HF-related mortality (Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi) having a significantly higher mortality burden compared with those in the bottom tenth percentile.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Following an initial period of stability, HF-related mortality in young adults increased from 2012 to 2019 in the United States. Black adults have a 3-fold higher AAMR compared with White adults, with significant geographic variation. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the rising burden of HF in young adults, with a focus on prevention, early diagnosis, and reduction in disparities.

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Background There are several risk scores designed to predict mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). Aim To assess performance of risk scores validated for mortality prediction in patients with acute HF (AHF) and chronic HF. Methods MEDLINE and Scopus were searched from January 2015 to January 2021 for studies which internally or externally validated risk models for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with AHF and chronic HF. Discrimination data were analyzed using C-statistics, and pooled using generic inverse-variance random-effects model. Results Nineteen studies (n = 494,156 patients; AHF:24,762; chronic HF mid-term mortality:62,000; chronic HF long-term mortality:452,097) and 11 risk scores were included. Overall, discrimination of risk scores was good across the three subgroups: AHF mortality (C-statistic:0.76, [0.68–0.83]), chronic HF mid-term mortality (1 year; C-statistic:0.74, [0.68–0.79]) and chronic HF long-term mortality (≥2 years; C-statistic:0.71, [0.69–0.73]). MEESSI-AHF (C-statistic:0.81, [0.80-0.83]) and MARKER-HF (C-statistic:0.85, [0.80-0.89]) had excellent discrimination for AHF and chronic HF mid-term mortality respectively, whereas MECKI had good discrimination (C-statistic:0.78, [0.73-0.83]) for chronic HF long-term mortality relative to other models. Overall, risk scores predicting short-term mortality in patients with AHF did not have evidence of poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p > 0.05). However, risk models predicting mid-term and long-term mortality in patients with chronic HF varied in calibration performance. Conclusions Majority of recently validated risk scores showed good discrimination for mortality in patients with HF. MEESSI-AHF demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AHF, and MARKER-HF and MECKI displayed excellent discrimination in patients with chronic HF. However, modest reporting of calibration and lack of head-to-head comparisons in same populations warrant future studies.