We quantify the relationship between Tanzanian and external maize markets while also accounting for domestic influences. We conclude that external influences on domestic prices originate from regional, rather than global, markets. We also show that, compared to external factors, domestic factors exert a greater influence on Tanzanian maize markets. Further, the mechanisms through which trade policies influence maize markets involve interactions with both external market shocks and domestic weather shocks. Overall, we provide evidence that the intermittent imposition of export bans in Tanzania has had adverse impacts on its maize markets, and consequently, on the development of its agrarian economy.JEL CLASSIFICATION: E31, O13, Q02, Q13, Q18

In the context of a changing climate, there is an urgent need to better understand the impact that weather disturbances have on food affordability in the developing world. While the influence of international markets on local food markets has received considerable attention, in contrast, the potential influence of weather disturbances on local food markets has received much less attention. In fact, local weather disturbances may have an adverse impact on the poorest households in developing countries. Here we quantify the short-run impact of both weather disturbances as well as international price changes on monthly food prices across 554 local commodity markets in 51 countries during the period between 2008 and 2012. We find that almost 20% of local market prices were affected by domestic weather disturbances in the short run, 9% by international price changes and 4% by both domestic weather disturbances and international price changes during the period. An improved understanding of the magnitude and relative importance of weather disturbances and international price changes on rural economies will inform public policies that are designed to mitigate the impact of adverse weather disturbances.

We quantify the relationship between Tanzanian and external maize markets while also accounting for domestic influences. We conclude that external influences on domestic prices originate from regional, rather than global, markets. We also show that, compared to external factors, domestic factors exert a greater influence on Tanzanian maize markets. Further, the mechanisms through which trade policies influence maize markets involve interactions with both external market shocks and domestic weather shocks. Overall, we provide evidence that the intermittent imposition of export bans in Tanzania has had adverse impacts on its maize markets, and consequently, on the development of its agrarian economy.

is prepared by Sergiy Zorya (ARD), Varun Kshirsagar (AFTAR), Madhur Gautam (SAARD), Willy Odwongo (AFTAR), Jos Verbeek (AFTP2), and Rachel Sebudde (AFTP2). It draws on various background studies recently undertaken for the Uganda Inclusive Growth Project. 2 Inclusive growth is defined as economic growth .

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.