10Displacements on tectonic faults primarily accrue during earthquakes at rates that vary 11 through time. To examine the processes that underlie the temporal changes in fault 12 displacement rates we analyse displacements and displacement rates for time periods 13 from the present to 5, 10, 20, 300, 500, 1 000 and 5 000 kyr for 261 active reverse or 14 normal faults from a worldwide dataset. Displacement rates depart from million-year 15 average rates by up to three orders of magnitude with the size of these departures 16 inversely related to fault length and the duration of the sample period. Short-term (≤ 20 17 kyr) displacement rates generally span a greater range on small faults than large, a feature 18 which suggests more variable growth on smaller faults. Simple earthquake-slip modeling 19shows that variations in displacement rates require changes in both recurrence interval 20 and slip per event and do not support the Characteristic-slip earthquake model. As long as 21 fault system strain rates are uniform, displacement rates generally become constant over 22 time periods between 20 -300 kyr, with the length of time required to reach stability 23 being inversely related to the regional basin-wide strain rates. Stable long-term 24 2 displacements rates and fluctuations in earthquake recurrence intervals and slip arise, in 25 part, due to fault interactions. 26 27
The Hellenic subduction margin in the Eastern Mediterranean has generated devastating historical earthquakes and tsunamis with poorly known recurrence intervals. Here stranded paleoshorelines indicate strong uplift transients (0–7 mm/yr) along the island of Crete during the last ~50 kyr due to earthquake clustering. We identify the highest uplift rates in western Crete since the demise of the Minoan civilization and along the entire island between ~10 and 20 kyr B.P., with the absence of uplifted Late Holocene paleoshorelines in the east being due to seismic quiescence. Numerical models show that uplift along the Hellenic margin is primarily achieved by great earthquakes on major reverse faults in the upper plate with little contribution from plate‐interface slip. These earthquakes were strongly clustered with recurrence intervals ranging from hundreds to thousands of years and primarily being achieved by fault interactions. Future great earthquakes will rupture seismically quiet areas in eastern Crete, elevating both seismic and tsunami hazards.
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