The aim of this article is to describe the reference configuration of the convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HARMONIE-AROME, which is used for operational short-range weather forecasts in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden. It is developed, maintained, and validated as part of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM system by a collaboration of 26 countries in Europe and northern Africa on short-range mesoscale NWP. HARMONIE-AROME is based on the model AROME developed within the ALADIN consortium. Along with the joint modeling framework, AROME was implemented and utilized in both northern and southern European conditions by the above listed countries, and this activity has led to extensive updates to the model's physical parameterizations. In this paper the authors present the differences in model dynamics and physical parameterizations compared with AROME, as well as important configuration choices of the reference, such as lateral boundary conditions, model levels, horizontal resolution, model time step, as well as topography, physiography, and aerosol databases used. Separate documentation will be provided for the atmospheric and surface data-assimilation algorithms and observation types used, as well as a separate description of the ensemble prediction system based on HARMONIE-AROME, which is called HarmonEPS.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m−2, or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

The cooling of the Earth's climate by anthropogenic aerosols offsets an unknown fraction of greenhouse gas warming. A potentially strong aerosol cooling effect is worrying because it implies a large sensitivity of the Earth's surface temperature to anthropogenic forcing. Aerosol-induced increases in cloud water have been postulated to lead to a substantial cooling effect. Here we provide direct observational evidence for a relatively weak average decrease in the amount of water in liquid-phase clouds. Polluted clouds downwind of various anthropogenic pollution sources, like oil refineries, smelters, coal-fired power plants, cities, wildfires, and ships, reveal cancellations between aerosol-induced cloud water increases and decreases. We estimate that the decrease in cloud water offsets 23% of the global climate cooling effect caused by aerosol-induced increases in cloud droplet number. These findings invalidate the hypothesis of a substantial climate cooling effect through cloud water increases and translate into reduced uncertainty in the projections of future climate. 12 10 Lohmann, U. et al. Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?