Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

Building exposure and vulnerability models for seismic risk assessment have been the focus of a number of European projects in recent years, but there has never been a concerted effort among the research community to produce a uniform European risk model. The European Commission’s Horizon 2020 SERA project has a work package that is dedicated to that objective, through the development of an exposure model, an associated set of fragility/vulnerability models, and a database of socioeconomic indicators in order to calculate probabilistic integrated seismic risk at a European scale. This article provides details of the development of the first versions of the European exposure model that describe the distribution of the main residential, industrial and commercial building classes across all countries in Europe, as well as their occupants and replacement costs. The v0.1 of the European exposure model has been integrated within the Global Earthquake Model’s global exposure and risk maps. Preliminary analyses using the model show that almost 35% of the residential population in Europe is exposed to a 475-year return period peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard of at least 0.1 g, thus highlighting the importance of European seismic risk modeling and mitigation.

This paper summarises the development of the European seismic risk model that is being undertaken within the Horizon 2020 SERA project in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The main innovation of the current effort with respect to previous initiatives relates to the extension of seismic risk to 46 countries within Europe, the use of a fully probabilistic methodology, the consideration of socio-economic aspects, and the involvement of the local scientific community in the development of the models. Some specific details of the European risk model for Croatia are also presented, together with some preliminary results. Europski model seizmickog rizika 2020: fokus na HrvatskuSažetak U radu je sažeto prikazan razvoj europskog modela seizmičkog rizika koji se provodi u sklopu Horizon 2020 projekta SERA u suradnji sa zakladom Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Glavna novost u sadašnjem projektu u odnosu na prethodne inicijative obuhvaća proširenje seizmičkog rizika na 46 zemalja unutar Europe, primjenu potpuno probabilističke metodologije, razmatranje društveno-ekonomskih aspekata i uključenost lokalne znanstvene zajednice u razvoj modela. Detalji europskog modela rizika, specifični za Hrvatsku, također su prikazani, kao i neki preliminarni rezultati.

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