Abstract:The stochastic convergence amongst Mexican Federal entities is analyzed in panel data framework. The joint consideration of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks is required to ensure that the statistical inference is based on statistics with good statistical properties. Once these features are accounted for, evidence in favour of stochastic convergence is found. Since stochastic convergence is a necessary, yet insufficient condition for convergence as predicted by economic growth models, the paper also investigates whether E-convergence process has taken place. We found that the Mexican states have followed either heterogeneous convergence patterns or divergence process throughout the analyzed period.

RESUMENEste tra ba jo bus ca me jo rar las ba ses de da tos re gio na les. De ri va mos esti ma ciones del pro duc to in ter no bru to es ta tal para cada año del pe rio do . Las es ti ma cio nes fue ron cal cu la das a par tir de da tos acer ca del pro duc to pu bli ca dos por el INEGI y de in for ma ción no ofi cial. Las se ries ge ne ra das de esta ma ne ra son de ri va das usan do la sen si bi li dad es ti ma da por una ecua ción de re gre sión y pos te rior men te ajus tán do las me dian te un mé to do de con ci liación trans ver sal. Esta re la ción es ti ma da va ría en el tiem po, lo que per mi te cap tar el com por ta mien to tem po ral y las fluc tua cio nes cí cli cas de la eco nomía de los es ta dos. Como re sul ta do ofre ce mos se ries de pro duc to ho mo gé neas y su fi cien te men te lar gas, a par tir de las cua les se pue den de ri var es tu dios regio na les más com ple tos. ABSTRACTThis work looks to im pro ve the re gio nal da ta ba ses. We de ri ve es ti ma tes of the sta te gross do mes tic pro duct for every year among 1940-1992. The ge ne ra ted es ti ma tes were built with data pu blis hed by INEGI. The ge ne ra ted se ries this way are de ri ved using the es ti ma ted sen si bi lity by a re gres sion equa tion and la ter on ad jus ting them by means of a met hod of across con ci lia tion. This ge ne ra ted re la tions hip va ries in time allo wing to cap tu re the tem po rary beha vior and the cycli cal fluc tua tions of the sta tes' eco nomy. As a re sult, we of fer ho mo geneous and suf fi ciently long pro duct se ries star ting from which can be de ri ved more com ple te re gio nal stu dies. EL TRIMESTRE ECONÓMICO, vol. LXXII (3), núm. 287, julio-septiembre de 2005, pp. 617-653 617 * Pa la bras cla ve: pro duc to in ter no bru to, ba ses de da tos, se ries his tó ri cas, eco no mía re gional, re gio na li za ción, Mé xi co. Cla si fi ca ción JEL: C82, O18, P44, R12. Artícu lo re ci bi do el 12 de ju lio de 2004 y acep ta do el 14 de fe bre ro de 2005. Este tra ba jo fue ela bo ra do como par te de la inves ti ga ción doc to ral en Eco no mía que se pre sen tó en la Uni ver si tat de Bar ce lo na y se ha be ne ficia do de la beca Pro mep con ve nio núm. PROMEP/103.5/02/1168 de la SEP. ** Fa cul tad de Eco no mía, Uni ver si dad Au tó no ma de Coahui la, Sal ti llo (co rreo elec tró nico:vger man@te rra.com). El au tor de sea ex pre sar su gra ti tud a Jo sep Lluis Ca rrion-i-Sil ves tre por su va lio sa ayu da y a los par ti ci pan tes de un se mi na rio de Eco no mía rea li za do en la Uni ver sitat de Bar ce lo na por co men ta rios y su ge ren cias re ci bi dos; a Da vid Cas tro, por su apo yo y lar gas ho ras de dis cu sión ge ne ral. Igual men te agra de ce to das las ob ser va cio nes y su ge ren cias de dos dic ta mi na do res anó ni mos de EL TRIMESTRE ECONÓMICO. Cual quier error, sin em bar go, es en tera res pon sa bi li dad del au tor.

In this paper we investigate the convergence process experienced by the Mexican states covering the period 1940-2001. Our analysis indicates that misleading conclusions can be obtained if the presence of structural breaks is not taken into account when testing for the presence of (stochastic) convergence. Thus, after allowing for structural breaks evidence in favour of convergence, in terms of real per capita GDP, is found both using unit root and cointegration tests. Empirical evidence shows that economic convergence has changed along time with mixed effects, although changes were toward convergence in majority of cases, consistent with stochastic convergence

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The relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth is explored for the main urban areas of Mexico during the period 1985-2008. The methodology consists of a production function estimated by means of panel data techniques that include distributed effects in time. The findings highlight that the economic impact from infrastructure investment is effectively spread through time and cannot only be contemporaneous. This result suggests long-run effects. Moreover, the empirical estimates are according to the urban areas' economic performance: Where major infrastructure provision exists, higher rates of growth are also taking place. Conclusions highlight that if infrastructure provision is not enough it could be a restriction for growth.