<p><em>This research investigates the relevance of government expenditure on poverty reduction in Nigeria. The main objective is thus to investigate whether the poverty reduction efforts through government spending has actually translated into a reduction in the poverty level. The study covered the period between 1980 and 2016. The ECM model and cointegration models of the OLS as well as the granger causality techniques were used to analyze the data. The result of the ADF unit root test indicates that all the variables are I(1). The result of the Johansen cointegration indicates the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The result of the parsimonious ECM indicates that though the one period lag government expenditure on health has a significant and positive impact on the per capita income, it has a low elasticity. The result indicates further that government expenditure on education has a significant and positive impact on the per capita income. The result indicates further that government expenditure on building and construction has a significant and positive impact on the per capita income, the elasticity is however very low. The granger causality test result indicates no causality between government expenditure on health and education. A bicausal relationship however exists between government expenditure on education and per capita income. The result shows no causality between government expenditure on building and construction and the per capita income. The result recommends amongst others an increment and proper monitoring of government spending which could be enhanced through public private partnership.</em></p>
This paper has investigated the relationship between the real oil prices and the Real Exchange Rate. Using time series data covering the period between 1980 and 2010, the result of the Johansen cointegration test suggests a long run equilibrium relationship between the real oil prices and the Real Exchange Rate. This relationship was supported by the Granger Causality test which validated the causal relationship from the real oil prices to the Real Exchange Rate. The result from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity test suggests persistence of the volatility between the real oil prices and the Real Effective Exchange Rate. The implication of this is that government policies in tackling the impact of fluctuations in real oil prices are important source of stabilizing the movements in the Real Effective Exchange Rate. The Nigerian government should consider this important relationship when formulating and implementing economic policies.
In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the determinants of the real exchange rate in Nigeria. The objective of the study has been to present a dynamic model of real exchange rate determination and empirically test the implications of changes in possible determinants of the real exchange in Nigeria. With data covering 1970-2010, the parsimonious ECM result shows amongst others that the ratio of government spending to GDP, terms of trade and technological progress are not important determinants of the real effective exchange rate in Nigeria. The result showed that capital flow, price level and nominal effective exchange rate are important determinants of the real effective exchange rate in Nigeria. The paper suggests that the Dutch Disease syndrome holds in Nigeria. The Johansen cointegration test suggests a long relationship among the variables. It is thus recommended amongst others that policies have to be put in place to stabilize the problem of inflation.
This study was aimed at investigating the behaviour of private investment in Nigeria. Using data covering the period between 1980 and 2011, the result of the parsimonious ECM indicates that the huge government expenditure on infrastructure has been beneficial to private investors in Nigeria. The result also indicates that private investment has been influenced by the international competitiveness of Nigeria as indicated by the significance of the Real Effective Exchange Rate. The high rate of inflation has however been detrimental to the development of private investment in Nigeria. The Johansen cointegration test supports the existence of a long run relationship among the variables and the negatively signed and significant ECM insinuates a satisfactory speed of adjustment. Government should thus intensify efforts to tackle the high rate of inflation and further increase the competitiveness of the economy.
The study has been on the impact of security expenditure on the level of economic growth in Nigeria. Using data covering the period between 1980 and 2010, the ECM result shows that the expenditure on defence has a negative impact on the level of economic growth. An indication of flawed expenditure budgeting and implementation in the defence sector. Expenditure on internal security played important role in generating the desired level of economic growth in Nigeria. The low elasticity indicates that the significance was below expectations. The result of the variance decomposition shows that the shocks to expenditure on defense did not significantly explain the changes in the level of economic growth in Nigeria. Expenditure on internal security however played a role in influencing the level of economic growth in Nigeria. The result of the Johansen cointegration test shows a long run relationship among the variables and the error correction result shows a satisfactory speed of adjustment. It is thus recommended that government should reassess the content of her defense expenditure and make it more transparent and growth oriented.
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