Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We achieve this by replacing the static parameters of a class of popular pairwise-comparison models by continuous-time Gaussian processes; the covariance function of these processes enables expressive dynamics. We develop an efficient inference algorithm that computes an approximate Bayesian posterior distribution. Despite the flexbility of our model, our inference algorithm requires only a few linear-time iterations over the data and can take advantage of modern multiprocessor computer architectures. We apply our model to several historical databases of sports outcomes and find that our approach a) outperforms competing approaches in terms of predictive performance, b) scales to millions of observations, and c) generates compelling visualizations that help in understanding and interpreting the data.

We address the problem of predicting aggregate vote outcomes (e.g., national) from partial outcomes (e.g., regional) that are revealed sequentially. We combine matrix factorization techniques and generalized linear models (GLMs) to obtain a flexible, efficient, and accurate algorithm. This algorithm works in two stages: First, it learns representations of the regions from high-dimensional historical data. Second, it uses these representations to fit a GLM to the partially observed results and to predict unobserved results. We show experimentally that our algorithm is able to accurately predict the outcomes of Swiss referenda, U.S. presidential elections, and German legislative elections. We also explore the regional representations in terms of ideological and cultural patterns. Finally, we deploy an online Web platform (www.predikon.ch) to provide realtime vote predictions in Switzerland and a data visualization tool to explore voting behavior. A by-product is a dataset of sequential vote results for 330 referenda and 2196 Swiss municipalities.

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As the number of contributors to online peer-production systems grows, it becomes increasingly important to predict whether the edits that users make will eventually be beneficial to the project. Existing solutions either rely on a user reputation system or consist of a highly specialized predictor that is tailored to a specific peerproduction system. In this work, we explore a different point in the solution space that goes beyond user reputation but does not involve any content-based feature of the edits. We view each edit as a game between the editor and the component of the project. We posit that the probability that an edit is accepted is a function of the editor's skill, of the difficulty of editing the component and of a user-component interaction term. Our model is broadly applicable, as it only requires observing data about who makes an edit, what the edit affects and whether the edit survives or not. We apply our model on Wikipedia and the Linux kernel, two examples of large-scale peer-production systems, and we seek to understand whether it can effectively predict edit survival: in both cases, we provide a positive answer. Our approach significantly outperforms those based solely on user reputation and bridges the gap with specialized predictors that use content-based features. It is simple to implement, computationally inexpensive, and in addition it enables us to discover interesting structure in the data.

The European Union law-making process is an instance of a peerproduction system. We mine a rich dataset of law edits and introduce models predicting their adoption by parliamentary committees. Edits are proposed by parliamentarians, and they can be in conflict with edits of other parliamentarians and with the original proposition in the law. Our models combine three different categories of features: (a) Explicit features extracted from data related to the edits, the parliamentarians, and the laws, (b) latent features that capture bi-linear interactions between parliamentarians and laws, and (c) text features of the edits. We show experimentally that this combination enables us to accurately predict the success of the edits. Furthermore, it leads to model parameters that are interpretable, hence provides valuable insight into the law-making process.