Climate change is dramatically changing ecosystem composition and productivity, leading scientists to consider the best approaches to map natural resistance and foster ecosystem resilience in the face of these changes. Here we present results from a large-scale experimental assessment of coral bleaching resistance, a critical trait for coral population persistence as oceans warm, in 221 colonies of the coral Acropora hyacinthus across 37 reefs in Palau. We find that bleaching resistant individuals inhabit most reefs but are found more often in warmer microhabitats. Our survey also found wide variation in symbiont concentration among colonies, and that colonies with lower symbiont load tended to be more bleaching resistant. By contrast, our data show that low symbiont load comes at the cost of lower growth rate, a tradeoff that may operate widely among corals across environments. Corals with high bleaching resistance have been suggested as a source for habitat restoration or selective breeding in order to increase coral reef resilience to climate change. Our maps show where these resilience corals can be found, but the existence of tradeoffs with heat resistance may suggest caution in unilateral use of this one trait in restoration.

Understanding processes that drive community recovery are needed to predict ecosystem trajectories and manage for impacts under increasing global threats. Yet, the quantification of community recovery in coral reefs has been challenging owing to a paucity of long-term ecological data and high frequency of disturbances. Here we investigate community re-assembly and the bio-physical drivers that determine the capacity of coral reefs to recover following the 1998 bleaching event, using long-term monitoring data across four habitats in Palau. Our study documents that the time needed for coral reefs to recover from bleaching disturbance to coral-dominated state in disturbance-free regimes is at least 9-12 years. Importantly, we show that reefs in two habitats achieve relative stability to a climax community state within that time frame. We then investigated the direct and indirect effects of drivers on the rate of recovery of four dominant coral groups using a structural equation modelling approach. While the rates of recovery differed among coral groups, we found that larval connectivity and juvenile coral density were prominent drivers of recovery for fast growing Acropora but not for the other three groups. Competitive algae and parrotfish had negative and positive effects on coral recovery in general, whereas wave exposure had variable effects related to coral morphology. Overall, the time needed for community re-assembly is habitat specific and drivers of recovery are taxa specific, considerations that require incorporation into planning for ecosystem management under climate change.

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Widespread mapping of coral thermal resilience is essential for developing effective management strategies and requires replicable and rapid multi-location assays of heat resistance and recovery. One- or two-day short-term heat stress experiments have been previously employed to assess heat resistance, followed by single assays of bleaching condition. We tested the reliability of short-term heat stress resistance, and linked resistance and recovery assays, by monitoring the phenotypic response of fragments from 101 Acropora hyacinthus colonies located in Palau (Micronesia) to short-term heat stress. Following short-term heat stress, bleaching and mortality were recorded after 16 hours, daily for seven days, and after one and two months of recovery. To follow corals over time, we utilized a qualitative, non-destructive visual bleaching score metric that correlated with standard symbiont retention assays. The bleaching state of coral fragments 16 hours post-heat stress was highly indicative of their state over the next 7 days, suggesting that symbiont population sizes within corals may quickly stabilize post-heat stress. Bleaching 16 hours post-heat stress predicted likelihood of mortality over the subsequent 3–5 days, after which there was little additional mortality. Together, bleaching and mortality suggested that rapid assays of the phenotypic response following short-term heat stress were good metrics of the total heat treatment effect. Additionally, our data confirm geographic patterns of intraspecific variation in Palau and show that bleaching severity among colonies was highly correlated with mortality over the first week post-stress. We found high survival (98%) and visible recovery (100%) two months after heat stress among coral fragments that survived the first week post-stress. These findings help simplify rapid, widespread surveys of heat sensitivity in Acropora hyacinthus by showing that standardized short-term experiments can be confidently assayed after 16 hours, and that bleaching sensitivity may be linked to subsequent survival using experimental assessments.

The prevalence of global coral bleaching has focused much attention on the possibility of interventions to increase heat resistance. However, if high heat resistance is linked to fitness tradeoffs that may disadvantage corals in other areas, then a more holistic view of heat resilience may be beneficial. In particular, overall resilience of a species to heat stress is likely to be the product of both resistance to heat and recovery from heat stress. Here, we investigate heat resistance and recovery among individual Acropora hyacinthus colonies in Palau. We divided corals into low, moderate, and high heat resistance categories based on the number of days (4–9) needed to reach significant pigmentation loss due to experimental heat stress. Afterward, we deployed corals back onto a reef in a common garden 6‐month recovery experiment that monitored chlorophyll a , mortality, and skeletal growth. Heat resistance was negatively correlated with mortality during early recovery (0–1 month) but not late recovery (4–6 months), and chlorophyll a concentration recovered in heat‐stressed corals by 1‐month postbleaching. However, moderate‐resistance corals had significantly greater skeletal growth than high‐resistance corals by 4 months of recovery. High‐ and low‐resistance corals on average did not exhibit skeletal growth within the observed recovery period. These data suggest complex tradeoffs may exist between coral heat resistance and recovery and highlight the importance of incorporating multiple aspects of resilience into future reef management programs.