Wind gusts present challenges to operational meteorologists, both to forecast accurately and also, to verify. Strong wind gusts can damage structures and create costly risks for diverse industrial sectors. The meteorologically stratified gust factor (MSGF) model incorporates site-specific gust factors (the ratio of peak wind gust to mean wind speed) with wind speed and direction forecast guidance. The MSGF model has previously been shown to be a viable operational tool that exhibits skill (improvement over climatology) in forecasting peak wind gusts. This study assesses the performance characteristics of the MSGF model by evaluating peak gust predictions during several types of gust-producing weather phenomena. Peak wind gusts were prepared and verified for 7 specific weather conditions over an 8-year period at 16 sites across the United States. When coupled with two forms of model output statistics (MOS) wind guidance, the MSGF model generally shows skill in predicting peak wind gusts at forecast projections ranging from 6 to 72 hours. The model performed best during high pressure and nocturnal conditions and was also skillful during conditions involving snow. The model did not perform well during the rain with thunder weather type. The MSGF model is a viable tool for the operational prediction of peak gusts for most gust-producing weather types.

Extratropical cyclones are the primary driver of sensible weather conditions across the mid-latitudes of North America, often generating various types of precipitation, gusty non-convective winds, and severe convective storms throughout portions of the annual cycle. Given ongoing modifications of the zonal atmospheric thermal gradient due to anthropogenic forcing, analyzing the historical characteristics of these systems presents an important research question. Using the North American Regional Reanalysis, boreal cool-season (October–April) extratropical cyclones for the period 1979–2019 were identified, tracked, and classified based on their genesis location. Additionally, bomb cyclones—extratropical cyclones that recorded a latitude normalized pressure fall of 24 hPa in 24-hr—were identified and stratified for additional analysis. Cyclone lifespan across the domain exhibits a log-linear relationship, with 99% of all cyclones tracked lasting less than 8 days. On average, ≈ 270 cyclones were tracked across the analysis domain per year, with an average of ≈ 18 year−1 being classified as bomb cyclones. The average number of cyclones in the analysis domain has decreased in the last 20 years from 290 year−1 during the period 1979–1999 to 250 year−1 during the period 2000–2019. Spatially, decreasing trends in the frequency of cyclone track counts were noted across a majority of the analysis domain, with the most significant decreases found in Canada’s Northwest Territories, Colorado, and east of the Graah mountain range. No significant interannual or spatial trends were noted with bomb cyclone frequency.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from fireworks displays have been linked to serious health concerns, particularly in infants and children. Outdoor displays in large, recurring festivals such as state fairs thus may threaten local air quality, particularly given the proximity of fairgrounds to substantial, nearby residential populations. Here, we identify state fairs with known firework displays and assess their impact on air quality in nearby communities. We assessed the impact of three large, recurring festivals on PM2.5 levels in nearby communities. Overall, our multi-year analysis failed to identify measurable increases in PM2.5 concentrations during festival days at air quality monitoring sites within 4–10 km of the fairgrounds, even when data were filtered by wind direction. Results suggest that firework displays from such festivals are unlikely to violate PM2.5 air quality standards in communities near the fairgrounds. The results suggest that identifying a potential air pollution signal associated with fireworks is challenging, particularly in urban fairgrounds where air quality is impacted by multiple local and distant pollution sources. Local impacts may yet be identified in future studies if air quality is monitored closer to the fairgrounds and if the fireworks pyrotechnic content is known.