Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of approximately 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002-2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.

Influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic evolution allowing mutant viruses to evade host immunity acquired to previous virus strains. Antigenic phenotype is often assessed through pairwise measurement of cross-reactivity between influenza strains using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Here, we extend previous approaches to antigenic cartography, and simultaneously characterize antigenic and genetic evolution by modeling the diffusion of antigenic phenotype over a shared virus phylogeny. Using HI data from influenza lineages A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata, we determine patterns of antigenic drift across viral lineages, showing that A/H3N2 evolves faster and in a more punctuated fashion than other influenza lineages. We also show that year-to-year antigenic drift appears to drive incidence patterns within each influenza lineage. This work makes possible substantial future advances in investigating the dynamics of influenza and other antigenically-variable pathogens by providing a model that intimately combines molecular and antigenic evolution.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01914.001

In 1997, 18 cases of influenza in Hong Kong (bird flu) caused by a novel H5N1 (chicken) virus resulted in the deaths of six individuals and once again raised the specter of a potentially devastating influenza pandemic. Slaughter of the poultry in the live bird markets removed the source of infection and no further human cases of H5N1 infection have occurred. In March 1999, however, a new pandemic threat appeared when influenza A H9N2 viruses infected two children in Hong Kong. These two virus isolates are similar to an H9N2 virus isolated from a quail in Hong Kong in late 1997. Although differing in their surface hemagglutinin and neuraminidase components, a notable feature of these H9N2 viruses is that the six genes encoding the internal components of the virus are similar to those of the 1997 H5N1 human and avian isolates. This common feature emphasizes the apparent propensity of avian viruses with this genetic complement to infect humans and highlights the potential for the emergence of a novel human pathogen.