<p>The International Lunar Decade (ILD) is proposed as a framework for international cooperation in lunar exploration and development from 2021-2030. ILD is inspired by the International Geophysical Year (IGY - 1957-8) when 66 countries and tens of thousands of scientists cooperated to understand planet Earth as a whole. Satellites were launched by the USSR. and the U.S. marking the dawn of the space age. Discovery of the Van Allen belts and knowledge and capabilities across many fields gained thru IGY led to the technologies that undergird the modern economy that depend on satellites for global communications, positioning and navigation, and Earth observation. IGY fostered international cooperation that has enabled global challenges like climate change to be understood and strategies framed to enable global action to mitigate climate change and other emerging global threats.</p> <p>As with IGY the ILD global initiative will be coordinated by a small secretariat established by the UN. Countries, international organizations such as COSPAR, NGOs, universities, cities and regions, and private firms will propose and manage projects with knowledge coordination thru the ILD secretariat and knowledge sharing thru numerous mechanisms many with a legacy to IGY.</p> <p>In the coming decades the ILD as a framework for development of a rules-based order can have an impact comparable to the future creating transformational impact of IGY. A rules-based order is necessary for sustainable development. A rules-based order enables effective conflict resolution. Poor conflict resolution leads to the development of weapons, fielding of militaries, hostilities and war – the most wasteful, costly and destructive human activity.</p> <p>ILD is intended to open opportunities for small and developing countries to take part in creating the space-resources economy building upon the lunar exploration activities initiated by the U.S. and larger spacefaring powers including Russia, China, ESA, India, Japan, and others that are already actively involved in lunar exploration. A rules-based order enables shared infrastructures and international financing mechanism that enable infrastructure financing and the cooperation that enables knowledge sharing and that can accelerate adoption of innovations. The ILD enables the rules-based order in outer space that opens the possibility for sustainable development for centuries to come while strengthening the international cooperation necessary to avert global catastrophe in the decade ahead. ILD provides a framework to enable a rules-based order necessary for success in meeting UN Space 2030 goals.</p> <p>The specific goal of ILD is to achieve sustainable presence on the Moon by 2030. The ILD framework will enable the development of policies for use of lunar resources as well as to govern operations on the Moon by multiple parties. The ILD offers the opportunity to advance a rules-based order to govern humankind’s expansion into the Solar System to fulfill the intent of space treaties that have been negotiated thus far thru the United Nations whose aspiration is summarized in Article I of the Outer Space Treaty:</p> <p>The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind.</p> <p>The ILD is fully consistent with and welcomes all other lunar exploration and development initiatives including the Moon Village, the U.S. Artemis project, China's Chang'e Project, and other initiatives. The ILD provides a framework for cooperation that can boost and broaden all lunar exploration and development initiatives that do not have a military orientation.  </p>

Gerard K. O’Neill idea of large habitats built from outer space resources in his 1974 Physics Today article “The Colonization of Space” resulted in a flurry of speculation and research and development work aimed at use of lunar resources to build large-scale solar-power satellite (SPS) to generate revenue to pay for space colonization. As the enormity of the technical and financial challenges to achieve space colonization research interest began to wane particularly with realization that the U.S. having reached the Moon before the USSR, was no longer driven to achieve more as the Nation faced the Oil Embargo and growing domestic concerns. Currently, the state of technology development and knowledge of lunar resources has created conditions where a lunar centric model of space development appears increasingly feasible offering the possibility of not only more rapid development in outer space, but also to impact long term sustainable development on Earth by reducing the need for terrestrial resources for industrial development in Earth orbits, cislunar space and the Moon. In effect, lunar industrial development can contribute increasingly to achieve sustainable development on Earth. This, however will raise challenges to address governance of space traffic and resource access and use on the Moon as unlike 1974 many countries are developing the capacity to reach and operate in cislunar space and on the Moon.

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<p>In this paper I will present scenarios of lunar industrial development to 2050 and corresponding development of markets for lunar resources in Earth orbits, cislunar space, the lunar surface, as well as the likely emergence of industrial development in Mars orbits based on use of lunar resources. I will also examine actions needed in the 2021-2030 timeframe to make this possible.</p> <p>Given that targets for launch to LEO from Earth in the range of $100 to $200/ kg. can be achieved before 2040 the Moon can emerge as the low-cost source of materials for industrial and commercial development in the Earth-Moon system and beyond.  Key assumptions that I will examined include the following:</p> <ul> <li>Structures in Earth orbits and cislunar space will be assembled in orbit from components manufactured in space.</li> <li>Space tourism with large-scale space resorts in low Earth orbits will give way to space settlements housing thousands and more as mortgage financing is developed to finance their development.</li> <li>The Moon will emerge as the low-cost site for materials for space manufacturing. Many important materials are on or near the surface and there is high probability of concentrations of high value materials being discovered in accessible locations including potentially the Aitken Basin anomaly [1}. , and the vacuum and fractional gravity of the Moon promises launch costs from the Moon to Earth orbits that are a fraction of launch from Earth.</li> <li>Lunar materials are likely to emerge as a primary source for industrial and commercial developments in Mars orbits. The delta-v of shipment to Mars orbit from the lunar surface is less than launch from Mars [1]. Industrial development in Mars orbit using lunar materials can lower costs and improve effectiveness of operations on Mars.</li> <li>It will become increasingly urgent to limit launch of spacecraft to LEO from Earth as congestion from satellite mega constellations increases and suborbital intercontinental transportation takes off following the model proposed by Elon Musk.</li> <li>Climate change is a threat to all countries and urgent action is called for to limit or eliminate large scale resource extraction on Earth, as well as to limit launches through the atmosphere. This factor will speed lunar industrial development and potentially open opportunities for some lunar derived materials to compete in terrestrial markets.</li> <li>A rules-based order agreed to by all states involved in outer space development will emerge by 2030. Billionaires can speed up development but international cooperation and agreement on governance policies is necessary to assure self-sustaining lunar industrial development.</li> </ul> <p>Notes</p> <p>[1] An excellent overview of lunar materials that also includes discussion of processing options is Ian A. Crawford, “Lunar resources: A review”, Progress in Physical Geography, 2015, Vol. 39(2) 137–167, retrieved from http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucfbiac/Lunar_resources_review_published.pdf . Pg. 149 summarizes findings on the Aitken Basin anomaly suggesting that a large metallic asteroid approximately 110 meters across may be buried there. The Psyche 16 metallic asteroid that has drawn media attention is 200 meters - 16 Psyche - Wikipedia</p> <p>[2]https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/2046/delta-v-chart-mathematics</p> <p> </p>