IMPORTANCEThe National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is a centralized, harmonized, highgranularity electronic health record repository that is the largest, most representative COVID-19 cohort to date. This multicenter data set can support robust evidence-based development of predictive and diagnostic tools and inform clinical care and policy.OBJECTIVES To evaluate COVID-19 severity and risk factors over time and assess the use of machine learning to predict clinical severity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSIn a retrospective cohort study of 1 926 526 US adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection (polymerase chain reaction >99% or antigen <1%) and adult patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection who served as controls from 34 medical centers nationwide between January 1, 2020, and December 7, 2020, patients were stratified using a World Health Organization COVID-19 severity scale and demographic characteristics. Differences between groups over time were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Random forest and XGBoost models were used to predict severe clinical course (death, discharge to hospice, invasive ventilatory support, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESPatient demographic characteristics and COVID-19 severity using the World Health Organization COVID-19 severity scale and differences between groups over time using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTSThe cohort included 174 568 adults who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (mean [SD] age, 44.4 [18.6] years; 53.2% female) and 1 133 848 adult controls who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 (mean [SD] age, 49.5 [19.2] years; 57.1% female). Of the 174 568 adults with SARS-CoV-2, 32 472(18.6%) were hospitalized, and 6565 (20.2%) of those had a severe clinical course (invasive ventilatory support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, death, or discharge to hospice). Of the hospitalized patients, mortality was 11.6% overall and decreased from 16.4% in March to April 2020 to 8.6% in September to October 2020 (P = .002 for monthly trend). Using 64 inputs available on the first hospital day, this study predicted a severe clinical course using random forest and XGBoost models (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.87 for both) that were stable over time. The factor most strongly associated with clinical severity was pH; this result was consistent across machine learning methods. In a separate multivariable logistic regression model built for inference, (continued) Key Points Question In a US data resource large enough to adjust for multiple confounders, what risk factors are associated with COVID-19 severity and severity trajectory over time, and can machine learning models predict clinical severity? Findings In this cohort study of 174 568 adults with SARS-CoV-2, 32 472 (18.6%) were hospitalized and 6565 (20.2%) were severely ill, and first-day machine learning models accurately predicted clinical severity. Mortality was 11.6%

ImportanceSARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with persistent, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects occurring after acute infection, termed postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also known as long COVID. Characterizing PASC requires analysis of prospectively and uniformly collected data from diverse uninfected and infected individuals.ObjectiveTo develop a definition of PASC using self-reported symptoms and describe PASC frequencies across cohorts, vaccination status, and number of infections.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsProspective observational cohort study of adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection at 85 enrolling sites (hospitals, health centers, community organizations) located in 33 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico. Participants who were enrolled in the RECOVER adult cohort before April 10, 2023, completed a symptom survey 6 months or more after acute symptom onset or test date. Selection included population-based, volunteer, and convenience sampling.ExposureSARS-CoV-2 infection.Main Outcomes and MeasuresPASC and 44 participant-reported symptoms (with severity thresholds).ResultsA total of 9764 participants (89% SARS-CoV-2 infected; 71% female; 16% Hispanic/Latino; 15% non-Hispanic Black; median age, 47 years [IQR, 35-60]) met selection criteria. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.5 or greater (infected vs uninfected participants) for 37 symptoms. Symptoms contributing to PASC score included postexertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, palpitations, changes in sexual desire or capacity, loss of or change in smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. Among 2231 participants first infected on or after December 1, 2021, and enrolled within 30 days of infection, 224 (10% [95% CI, 8.8%-11%]) were PASC positive at 6 months.Conclusions and RelevanceA definition of PASC was developed based on symptoms in a prospective cohort study. As a first step to providing a framework for other investigations, iterative refinement that further incorporates other clinical features is needed to support actionable definitions of PASC.

The bidirectional gut-brain-microbiota axis as a potential nexus between traumatic brain injury, inflammation, and disease. AbstractAs head injuries and their sequelae have become an increasingly salient matter of public health, experts in the field have made great progress elucidating the biological processes occurring within the brain at the moment of injury and throughout the recovery thereafter. Given the extraordinary rate at which our collective knowledge of neurotrauma has grown, new insights may be revealed by examining the existing literature across disciplines with a new perspective. This article will aim to expand the scope of this rapidly evolving field of research beyond the confines of the central nervous system (CNS). Specifically, we will examine the extent to which the bidirectional influence of the gut-brain axis modulates the complex biological processes occurring at the time of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and over the days, months, and years that follow. In addition to local enteric signals originating in the gut, it is well accepted that gastrointestinal (GI) physiology is highly regulated by innervation from the CNS. Conversely, emerging data suggests that the function and health of the CNS is modulated by the interaction between 1) neurotransmitters, immune signaling, hormones, and neuropeptides produced in the gut, 2) the composition of the gut microbiota, and 3) integrity of the intestinal wall serving as a barrier to the external environment. Specific to TBI, existing pre-clinical data indicates that head injuries can cause structural and functional damage to the GI tract, but research directly investigating the neuronal consequences of this intestinal damage is lacking. Despite this void, the proposed mechanisms emanating from a damaged gut are closely implicated in the inflammatory processes known to promote neuropathology in the brain following TBI, which suggests the gut-brain axis may be a therapeutic target to reduce the risk of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy and other neurodegenerative diseases following TBI. To better appreciate how various peripheral influences are implicated in the health of the CNS following TBI, this paper will also review the secondary biological injury mechanisms and the dynamic pathophysiological response to neurotrauma. Together, this review article will attempt to connect the dots to reveal novel insights into the bidirectional influence of the gut-brain axis and propose a conceptual model relevant to the recovery from TBI and subsequent risk for future neurological conditions.

Effective implementation of artificial intelligence in behavioral healthcare delivery depends on overcoming challenges that are pronounced in this domain. Self and social stigma contribute to under-reported symptoms, and under-coding worsens ascertainment. Health disparities contribute to algorithmic bias. Lack of reliable biological and clinical markers hinders model development, and model explainability challenges impede trust among users. In this perspective, we describe these challenges and discuss design and implementation recommendations to overcome them in intelligent systems for behavioral and mental health.