ObjectiveTo assess the value of using frailty measures in primary care for predicting death, nursing home transfer (NHT) and hospital admission.DesignCohort study.Setting and participantsAll 380 people, mean age 88.4, living in the community and receiving home-based primary geriatric care from one practice in Victoria, Canada.Interventions/measurementsA 60 min baseline assessment which included: Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), EuroQol EQ-5D-5L (EQ-5D), EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS) and Gait Speed (Gaitspeed).OutcomesDeath, NHT and hospital admission.ResultsDuring 18 months of follow-up, there were 39 (10.3%) deaths, 48 (12.6%) NHTs and 93 (24.5%) individuals admitted to hospital. All three outcomes were predicted by: CFS Level 6+7/4+5 (HR death 5.92, 95% CI 3.12 to 11.22, NHT 6.00, 95% CI 3.37 to 10.66 and hospital admission 2.92, 95% CI 1.93 to 4.40); EQ-5D Quintile 1/Quintile 5 (death 6.26, 95% CI 2.11 to 18.62; NHT 3.18, 95% CI 1.29 to 7.82 and hospital admission 2.94, 95% CI 1.47 to 5.87); EQ-VAS Q1/Q5 (death 7.0, 95% CI 2.34 to 20.93; NHT 3.38, 95% CI 1.22 to 9.35 and hospital admission 6.69, 95% CI 3.20 to 13.99) and Gaitspeed (death 5.87, 95% CI 1.78 to 19.34; NHT 8.51, 95% CI 3.18 to 22.79 and hospital admission 11.05, 95% CI 5.45 to 22.40). Medical diagnoses, multiple comorbidities and polypharmacy were weaker predictors of these outcomes. Cox regression analyses showed CFS (adjusted HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.23 to 6.68), EQ-VAS (0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98), estimated glomerular filtration rate (0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.00) and haemoglobin (0.97, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.99) were independently associated with death. Gaitspeed (0.13, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.57), Geriatric Depression Scale (1.39, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.82) and dementia diagnosis (4.61, 95% CI 1.86 to 11.44) were associated with NHT. Only CFS (1.75, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.51) and EQ-VAS (0.98, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99) were associated with hospital admission. No other diagnoses, polypharmacy nor multiple comorbidities predicted these outcomes.ConclusionsFor elderly people, standardised simple measures of frailty and health status were stronger predictors of death, NHT and hospital admission than medical diagnoses. Consideration should be given to adding these measures into usual medical care for this age group.