The paper presents results of modeling various variations of the Universal Time (UT1). To develop a variation models, UT1 observations from 1901 to 2020 published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) were used. Using the developed method, the main variations are identified from the diverse spectrum of irregularities in the Earth’s rotation, the models of which are presented as a superposition of a limited number of harmonic components. The results obtained in this paper are important for improving the accuracy of predictions of Universal Time.

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Растущие потребности в точности координатно-временных определений со стороны многих прикладных наук о Земле и практических задач приводят к необходимости постоянного совершенствования средств и методов определения и прогнозирования параметров вращения Земли. Параметр “всемирное время”, характеризующий фазу вращения Земли, в наибольшей степени среди других влияет на точность координатно-временных определений. В данной статье приводится описание применения метода сингулярного спектрального анализа к прогнозированию временных рядов параметров вращения Земли. Предлагается модификация базового метода, направленная на повышение точности прогноза. Выполнены сравнительные оценки точности прогнозов всемирного времени, рассчитанных методом сингулярного спектрального анализа, с аналогичными прогнозами Международной службы вращения Земли. Показана целесообразность применения метода сингулярного спектрального анализа для прогнозирования на интервалы более 50 дней Growing demand for accuracy of coordinate-time determinations from both many applied Earth sciences and practical problems requires the continuous improvement of means and methods for determining and predicting the parameters of the Earth rotation. Parameter “World time” characterizes phase of the Earth’s rotation and mostly affects the accuracy of coordinate-time determinations. This article describes application of method of singular spectral analysis for forecasting the time series of the Earth’s rotation parameters. We propose modification of basic method, which aims at increasing forecast accuracy. We made comparative estimates for accuracy of world time forecasts calculated by the method of singular spectral analysis with similar forecasts by the International Earth Rotation Service. The expediency of using the method of singular spectral analysis for predicting intervals of more than 50 days is shown

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The article provides information about the relationship between changes in the global temperature on the Earth and variations in the speed of its rotation. Special attention is paid to the study of the correlation between the onset of abnormal warm and cold winters of the Eurasian continent and sharp changes in the Earth's rotation speed. It been observed, that during periods of rapid deceleration in the 20th and 21st century, there were abnormally cold winters, and during periods of acceleration, abnormally warm ones. Thus, the periods of acceleration and deceleration of the Earth's rotation speed fell respectively on warm or cold winters in all cases, except for the winter of 1964/65 g., when the Earth's rotation occurred relatively evenly. Based on the obtained 90 % correlation of the number of coincidences of anamal winters with sharp changes in the speed of EW, as well as the calculated forecast of the Earth's rotation speed up to 2030, it is concluded that from 2024 to 2026 g, anamol cold winter should be expected in Russia and Europe