Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to study agriculture development in independent Ukraine using methods for decomposition of data sets to obtain structural components according to their level of determination and to investigate main tendencies without random fluctuation. Methodology / approach. This research uses econometrics methods of regression and correlation dynamics, data filtering from random factors impact, comparison method to reconstruct trends in agriculture development. The accent is made on the differences between results of analysis on the base of uncleaned and purified data. The cleaning process was made by the Hodrick-Prescott method for data sets decomposition without loss of information into several functions that describe behavior of system formed under deterministic, periodical, and stochastic influence. The calculations and their visualization were held by means of GNU Octave. The research covered the period of 1996–2018 years in development of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in Ukraine. Results. This paper emphasizes on the necessity to clean data before its analysis. Unlike the analysis based on the raw data the reconstruction of relationships between filtered data sets allows building models of agriculture dynamics more precisely. The article presents reconstructed main correlated dynamics that were formed by deterministic impacts in Ukraine agriculture. Besides, the crucial turning points in Ukraine agriculture development were revealed because of analysis of filtered data. It is shown how data cleaning raises analysis quality. Originality / scientific novelty. Reconstruction of economy regression models on the dynamic data sets can be followed by the risks of wrong interpretation of results. To have correct explanation of regularity it matters to eliminate from data sets the fluctuations formed by random impacts and to study relation of tendencies in connection with structural shifts in the development of the country. The advisability and the necessity to use such approaches are proved by this research that was held on the base of statistical data from World Bank official site. It is the first reconstruction of the long-term agriculture dynamics of Ukraine on the base of filtered correlated data sets of 1996–2018. The main advantages of this research are the revealed turning points in Ukraine agriculture development that can be used by other researchers in investigation of economy and economic history. Practical value / implications. To raise precision of analysis and avoid wrong interpretation of outcomes it should be taken into consideration all factors that impact on events and thus it is rational to verify data and clean them from random oscillations especially studying long-term tendencies in the development of such systems as economy branches or country entire. Moreover, it helps to reveal peaks of growth and recession points in business activity and make more coherent predictions on the future development. The article presented the effectiveness of filter methods applying and results of analysis that can be used in management and forecast of long-term development in Ukraine agriculture. Such methodic can be applied to the analysis of both individual industries and the economy as a whole.

Abstract. Introduction. Agriculture plays prominent role to supply people with food and industry with raw. The development of this branch depends on as economic conjuncture as nature conditions. Ukraine agriculture have developed in two directions during the period of 1991-2018. After several years of declining this branch has started reviving since 2009. The question is how successful this process is flowing. Various investigations cover analysis of dynamics, structure, correlations between indicators, forecasting and juxtaposing with other economic branches. Studying experience of other economies that had downs, but then accumulated their strengths and made economical leap, is the example for own start in development. What caused the growth and what made countries prosperous? This experience must be studied and implemented by scientists, government, and farmers. Most nowadays successful countries started from revision of existing styles of agricultural management and farm holding. They initiated reforms and adopted laws that had to support development of farms. Some of countries, that have been under influence of Soviet Union's style of management, being independent now are in the category of countries with middle or high world level of income. In contrary, Ukraine during almost thirty years of independence is fighting problems in economic development caused by negative factors including crises. To study features of countries’ growth and eliminate influence of inflation or incomparable indicators on results of analysis it is reasonable to investigate the same indicators for the similar period in determined currency. This article presents comparison results made for Ukraine Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia despite their size and political preferences. Information for analysis used in this exploration is on the World Bank official site. Data cover the period of 1995-2019 years. Purpose. The main aim of this article is to compare indicators of agriculture development in Ukraine with other countries in order to find how successful and sufficient economic efforts of Ukraine are to raise agriculture sector on the higher level of development. Results. Conducted analysis revealed that other countries compared with Ukraine get bigger value added per worker or per unit of agriculture land. Moreover, they not only feed own country, but also sell their production abroad. Conclusions. Ukraine has the biggest soils squares to plant crops, vegetable, fruit, but it gets the least amount of profit from land usage. Ukraine has positive tendency in agriculture development, but as comparison with other countries proved the existing way of land using or cultivation, farm holding, and agriculture management is insufficient to become a prosperous country. Crop and livestock production need to be investigated deeper.

Невикористані можливості в розвитку Україні: екологічні та економічні втрати Анотація. Багатовікова діяльність людства, особливо останні десятиріччя швидкого технологічного прогресу, тісно пов'язані зі зростанням обсягів викидів в повітря та водні басейни, зі стійким накопиченням небезпечних продуктів діяльності, що охоплюють великі площі земель, які згодом стають непридатним для сільськогосподарського використання. В статті подано результати аналізу ефекту таких побічних проявів розвитку, як негативні тенденції акумуляції побутових відходів та нераціонального використання водних природних ресурсів, що не лише шкодять природному середовищу країни, а й призводять до недоотримання економічних вигод. Зокрема, зіставлено стан висвітлення проблеми подолання наслідків технологічного прогресу в міжнародних та вітчизняних відкритих джерелах; виявлено особливості представлення інформації щодо даної проблеми в Україні; за офіційними статистичними даними проаналізовано специфіку поводження з побутовими відходами; оцінено імовірні економічні втрати від нераціонального використання водних ресурсів та необлікованих, а отже, неконтрольованих витрат, при поводженні з відходами. Розглянуто регіональний аспект та простежено тенденції загалом по країні. В статті враховано період останнього десятиріччя, та в окремих випадках взято до уваги довгострокову динаміку числових показників описаної предметної області. Ключові слова: економічні витрати; забруднення середовища; тенденція поводження з відходами; динаміка; необліковані відходи; валовий регіональний продукт.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to identify stages in development and to analyze the content of transformation processes in Ukrainian agriculture for the period of 1991–2022 years. Methodology / approach. This research uses content analysis of legislative field to present basis for organization of agriculture business activity for the 30-years of restoration of Ukraine independence. Official statistical data are studied to reveal repercussion in productivity as an effect of Laws, Acts and Agreements implementation. Methods of regression and correlation analysis are used to unveil peculiarities in agriculture tendency. Hodrick-Prescott method is applied to extract structural components, exclude random impacts on economical processes and to find out significant changes or turnings in the sector development. Quantitative analysis results were obtained by the GNU Octave software tool. Results. Legislative evolution has influenced on the way of agriculture business organization and branch productivity. Analysis revealed two stages in its development. The first one (1991–1999) is the period of business transformation with changes of ownership forms on the land. This period is notable by its descending dynamics. Transformation has required to build relationships in business environment after collapse of Soviet Union, to supply with material and technical resources, to support its activity with financial funds. The essence of the first stage is in findings of an effective form of farming management. The second stage is the exit from the lowest point at which agrarian business was in 1999 and the gradual growth of its activity and profitability. This is the period of strengthening of relationships in the business environment, development of crop and livestock production, implementing of new technologies of land cultivation, plant, and animal care. It is the period of economic recovery on the base of private land ownership, motivation of producers’ activity, agreements on free trade and cooperation with the EU and other countries. Simultaneously, it is the years of overcoming of such shocking consequences as economic collapse of the end of 1990s, the instability of foreign currency and the banking crisis of 2008–2009, the beginning of the hybrid occupation of Ukraine by Russia in 2014, the rapid fluctuation of the value of its own currency in 2014–2015 because of war. The alteration of the principles of currency exchange rate formation with the transition from a fixed value to that is formed under the influence of market conditions was a mean to overcome this instability. Russia’s full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine since 2022 caused the latest devastating events in the economy. Originality / scientific novelty. The novelty of the obtained research results is in presentation, argumentation, and interpretation of productivity waves in agriculture development for the 30-years of Ukraine independency with the use of extract method of structural components and correlation analysis of smoothed data sets. The continuity of legislative stages of agriculture reorganization was built to reveal ground for agriculture growth and to understand factors of branch sustainability. It is the first time when research shows how to detect latent changes in the development in the context of legislative changes, external threats, and internal peculiarities of branch. Practical value / implications. Results of analysis can be implemented in the historical reconstruction of causes and consequences of falls and rises in the Ukrainian economy for the period of 1991–2022. Used smoothing method is suggested to be applied in econometric research when the dynamics of indicators behavior cannot be approximated with certain function unmistakably because of ambiguous form of data scattering or its latent character.

No abstract