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Network epidemics are ubiquitous. As botnets evolve, they compromise additional users to join DDoS attack campaigns. Such users face a dilemma with respect to which countermeasures to take: hard (e.g., vaccination), soft (e.g., rebooting and rejuvenation) or no countermeasures at all. To tackle this dilemma, one option is to leverage insights from analytical models. Our key contribution consists of novel results on the steady state solution of epidemic models wherein the attacker is strategic and has a finite attack budget. To this aim, the most probable states of the model are analyzed, and are used to derive closed form expressions that approximate the steady state probability of infection of a node. Then, model's insights are contrasted against simulations. The simulations qualitatively support the observations of the model and extend the analysis allowing general distributions to the times between the events.Resumo. Epidemias de rede são ubíquas. Todos os dias, sistemas são comprometidos por botnets e participam de campanhas de ataque DDoS. Assim, os usuários enfrentam um dilema com relação a quais contramedidas tomar: duras (por exemplo, vacinação), suaves (por exemplo, reinicialização e rejuvenescimento) ou nenhuma contramedida. Para resolver esse dilema, uma opçãó e tomar proveito de modelos analíticos. Neste artigo, apresentamos novos resultados sobre a solução em estado estacionário de modelos epidêmicos em que o atacanteé estratégico e tem uma capacidade de ataque finita. Para tanto, analisamos os estados mais prováveis do modelo, indicando suas propriedades; apresentamos fórmulas que aproximam a probabilidade de infecção e contrastamos os insights do modelo com simulações. As simulações suportam qualitativamente as observações do modelo e estendem a análise permitindo distribuições gerais para os tempos entre os eventos.
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