The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged front-line clinical decision-making, leading to numerous published prognostic tools. However, few models have been prospectively validated and none report implementation in practice. Here, we use 3345 retrospective and 474 prospective hospitalizations to develop and validate a parsimonious model to identify patients with favorable outcomes within 96 h of a prediction, based on real-time lab values, vital signs, and oxygen support variables. In retrospective and prospective validation, the model achieves high average precision (88.6% 95% CI: [88.4–88.7] and 90.8% [90.8–90.8]) and discrimination (95.1% [95.1–95.2] and 86.8% [86.8–86.9]) respectively. We implemented and integrated the model into the EHR, achieving a positive predictive value of 93.3% with 41% sensitivity. Preliminary results suggest clinicians are adopting these scores into their clinical workflows.

BackgroundMechanical ventilation is an essential therapy to support critically ill respiratory failure patients. Current standards of care consist of generalised approaches, such as the use of positive end expiratory pressure to inspired oxygen fraction (PEEP–FiO2) tables, which fail to account for the inter- and intra-patient variability between and within patients. The benefits of higher or lower tidal volume, PEEP, and other settings are highly debated and no consensus has been reached. Moreover, clinicians implicitly account for patient-specific factors such as disease condition and progression as they manually titrate ventilator settings. Hence, care is highly variable and potentially often non-optimal. These conditions create a situation that could benefit greatly from an engineered approach. The overall goal is a review of ventilation that is accessible to both clinicians and engineers, to bridge the divide between the two fields and enable collaboration to improve patient care and outcomes. This review does not take the form of a typical systematic review. Instead, it defines the standard terminology and introduces key clinical and biomedical measurements before introducing the key clinical studies and their influence in clinical practice which in turn flows into the needs and requirements around how biomedical engineering research can play a role in improving care. Given the significant clinical research to date and its impact on this complex area of care, this review thus provides a tutorial introduction around the review of the state of the art relevant to a biomedical engineering perspective.DiscussionThis review presents the significant clinical aspects and variables of ventilation management, the potential risks associated with suboptimal ventilation management, and a review of the major recent attempts to improve ventilation in the context of these variables. The unique aspect of this review is a focus on these key elements relevant to engineering new approaches. In particular, the need for ventilation strategies which consider, and directly account for, the significant differences in patient condition, disease etiology, and progression within patients is demonstrated with the subsequent requirement for optimal ventilation strategies to titrate for patient- and time-specific conditions.ConclusionEngineered, protective lung strategies that can directly account for and manage inter- and intra-patient variability thus offer great potential to improve both individual care, as well as cohort clinical outcomes.

BackgroundReal-time patient respiratory mechanics estimation can be used to guide mechanical ventilation settings, particularly, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). This work presents a software, Clinical Utilisation of Respiratory Elastance (CURE Soft), using a time-varying respiratory elastance model to offer this ability to aid in mechanical ventilation treatment.ImplementationCURE Soft is a desktop application developed in JAVA. It has two modes of operation, 1) Online real-time monitoring decision support and, 2) Offline for user education purposes, auditing, or reviewing patient care. The CURE Soft has been tested in mechanically ventilated patients with respiratory failure. The clinical protocol, software testing and use of the data were approved by the New Zealand Southern Regional Ethics Committee.Results and discussionUsing CURE Soft, patient’s respiratory mechanics response to treatment and clinical protocol were monitored. Results showed that the patient’s respiratory elastance (Stiffness) changed with the use of muscle relaxants, and responded differently to ventilator settings. This information can be used to guide mechanical ventilation therapy and titrate optimal ventilator PEEP.ConclusionCURE Soft enables real-time calculation of model-based respiratory mechanics for mechanically ventilated patients. Results showed that the system is able to provide detailed, previously unavailable information on patient-specific respiratory mechanics and response to therapy in real-time. The additional insight available to clinicians provides the potential for improved decision-making, and thus improved patient care and outcomes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-925X-13-140) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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