Population numbers at local levels are fundamental data for many applications, including the delivery and planning of services, election preparation, and response to disasters. In resource-poor settings, recent and reliable demographic data at subnational scales can often be lacking. National population and housing census data can be outdated, inaccurate, or missing key groups or areas, while registry data are generally lacking or incomplete. Moreover, at local scales accurate boundary data are often limited, and high rates of migration and urban growth make existing data quickly outdated. Here we review past and ongoing work aimed at producing spatially disaggregated local-scale population estimates, and discuss how new technologies are now enabling robust and cost-effective solutions. Recent advances in the availability of detailed satellite imagery, geopositioning tools for field surveys, statistical methods, and computational power are enabling the development and application of approaches that can estimate population distributions at fine spatial scales across entire countries in the absence of census data. We outline the potential of such approaches as well as their limitations, emphasizing the political and operational hurdles for acceptance and sustainable implementation of new approaches, and the continued importance of traditional sources of national statistical data.

[1] Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions, such as isoprene and terpenes, can be oxidized to form less volatile carbonyls, acids, and multifunctional oxygenated products that may condense to form secondary organic aerosols (SOA). This research was designed to assess the contribution of oxidized BVOC emissions to SOA in coniferous forests by collecting high-volume particulate samples for 6 days and 5 nights in the summer of 2003. The samples were analyzed for acids, carbonyls, polyols and alkanes to quantify oxidized BVOCs. Terpene and isoprene oxidation products were among the most abundant chemical species detected with the exception of hexadecanoic acid, octadecanoic acid and two butyl esters of unknown origin. The terpene oxidation products of pinonic acid, pinic acid, nopinone and pinonaldehyde showed clear diurnal cycles with concentrations two-to eight-fold higher at night. These cycles resulted from the diurnal cycles in gaseous terpene concentrations and lower temperatures that enhanced condensation of semivolatile chemicals onto aerosols. The terpene-derived compounds averaged 157 ± 118 ng/m 3 of particulate organic matter while the isoprene oxidation compounds, namely the 2-methyltetrols and 2-methylglyceric acid, accounted for 53 ± 19 ng/m 3 . Together, the terpene and isoprene oxidation products represented 36.9% of the identified organic mass of 490 ± 95 ng/m 3 . PM 10 organic matter loadings in the region were approximately 2.1 ± 1.2 mg/m 3 , so about 23% of the organic matter was identified and at least 8.6% was oxidized BVOCs. The BVOC oxidation products we measured were significant, but not dominant, contributors to the regional SOA only 75 km downwind of the Sacramento urban area.

Although remote sensing has long been used to aid in the estimation of population, it has usually been in the context of spatial disaggregation of national census data, with the census counts serving both as observational data for specifying models and as constraints on model outputs. Here we present a framework for estimating populations from the bottom up, entirely independently of national census data, a critical need in areas without recent and reliable census data. To make observations of population density, we replace national census data with a microcensus, in which we enumerate population for a sample of small areas within the states of Kano and Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Using supervised texture-based classifiers with very high resolution satellite imagery, we produce a binary map of human settlement at 8-meter resolution across the two states and then a more refined classification consisting of 7 residential types and 1 non-residential type. Using the residential types and a model linking them to the population density observations, we produce population estimates across the two states in a gridded raster format, at approximately 90-meter resolution. We also demonstrate a simulation framework for capturing uncertainty and presenting estimates as prediction intervals for any region of interest of any size and composition within the study region. Used in concert with previously published demographic estimates, our population estimates allowed for predictions of the population under 5 in ten administrative wards that fit strongly with reference data collected during polio vaccination campaigns.

Accurate and complete maps are a necessary part of an effective polio microplan, and tracking vaccinators gives supervisors a tool to ensure that all settlements are visited.

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