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Abstract:Reproductive activities are often associated with conspicuous morphology or behaviour that could be exploited by predators. Individuals can therefore face a trade-off between reproduction and predation risk. Here we use simple models to explore population-dynamical consequences of such a trade-off for populations subject to a mate-finding Allee effect and an Allee effect due to predation. We present our results in the light of populations that belong to endangered species or pests and study their viability and resilience. We distinguish several qualitative scenarios characterized by the shape and strength of the trade-off and, in particular, identify conditions for which the populations survive or go extinct. Reproduction can be so costly that the population always goes extinct. In other cases, the population goes extinct only over a certain range of low, intermediate or high levels of reproductive activities. Moreover, we show that predator removal (e.g. in an attempt to save an endangered prey species) has the least effect on populations with low cost of reproduction in terms of predation and, conversely, predator addition (e.g. to eradicate a pest) is most effective for populations with high predation cost of reproduction. Our results indicate that a detailed knowledge of the trade-off can be crucial in applications: for some trade-off shapes, only intermediate levels of reproductive activities might guarantee population survival, while they can lead to extinction for others. We therefore suggest that the fate of populations subject to the two antagonistic Allee effects should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Although the literature offers no quantitative data on possible trade-off shapes in any taxa, indirect evidence suggests that the trade-off and both Allee effects can occur simultaneously, e.g. in the golden egg bug Phyllomorpha laciniata.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can cause endocrine disruption, cancer, immunosuppression, or reproductive failure in animals. We used an individual-based model to explore whether and how PCB-associated reproductive failure could affect the dynamics of a hypothetical polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population exposed to PCBs to the same degree as the East Greenland subpopulation. Dose-response data from experimental studies on a surrogate species, the mink (Mustela vision), were used in the absence of similar data for polar bears. Two alternative types of reproductive failure in relation to maternal sum-PCB concentrations were considered: increased abortion rate and increased cub mortality. We found that the quantitative impact of PCB-induced reproductive failure on population growth rate depended largely on the actual type of reproductive failure involved. Critical potencies of the dose-response relationship for decreasing the population growth rate were established for both modeled types of reproductive failure. Comparing the model predictions of the age-dependent trend of sum-PCBs concentrations in females with actual field measurements from East Greenland indicated that it was unlikely that PCB exposure caused a high incidence of abortions in the subpopulation. However, on the basis of this analysis, it could not be excluded that PCB exposure contributes to higher cub mortality. Our results highlight the necessity for further research on the possible influence of PCBs on polar bear reproduction regarding their physiological pathway. This includes determining the exact cause of reproductive failure, i.e., in utero exposure versus lactational exposure of offspring; the timing of offspring death; and establishing the most relevant reference metrics for the dose-response relationship.

Climate change will increasingly affect the natural habitat and diet of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Understanding the energetic needs of polar bears is therefore important. We developed a theoretical method for estimating polar bear food consumption based on using the highly recalcitrant polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener, 2,2′,4,4′,55-hexaCB (CB153) in bear adipose tissue as an indicator of food intake. By comparing the CB153 tissue concentrations in wild polar bears with estimates from a purposely designed individual-based model, we identified the possible combinations of field metabolic rates (FMR) and CB153 deposition efficiencies in East Greenland polar bears. Our simulations indicate that if 30% of the CB153 consumed by polar bear individuals were deposited into their adipose tissue, the corresponding FMR would be only two times the basal metabolic rate. In contrast, if the modelled CB153 deposition efficiency were 10%, adult polar bears would require six times more energy than that needed to cover basal metabolism. This is considerably higher than what has been assumed for polar bears in previous studies though it is similar to FMRs found in other marine mammals. An implication of this result is that even relatively small reductions in future feeding opportunities could impact the survival of East Greenland polar bears.