Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract:  The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.

This study was a statistical evaluation of the prevalence of infiltration excess runoff ͑i.e., Hortonian flow͒ for undeveloped areas within New York City ͑NYC͒ watersheds. Identifying the hydrological processes generating runoff is central to developing watershed management strategies for protecting water quality. Fifteen-minute rainfall data from East Sidney, N.Y. ͑1971-2002͒ were used as maximum observed intensities. Maximum exceedance analyses were performed on a monthly basis to investigate seasonal rainfall intensity trends. Hortonian flow was assumed to occur whenever the rainfall intensity exceeded the soil permeability. Soil permeabilities were obtained from the U.S. Natural Resource Conservation Service soil survey. Results show that Hortonian flow is unlikely to occur anywhere for events smaller than the 3-year 15-min event. Only for the summer months, May-August, is Hortonian flow expected for 15-min intensities of Ͻ10-year magnitude. However, the summer results are overpredicted by this analysis because these months typically have the driest soil conditions and thus the highest infiltration capacity. This analysis concludes that infiltration excess runoff is not a dominant runoff process in undeveloped portions of NYC watersheds.

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The TOPMODEL framework was used to derive expressions that account for saturated and unsaturated flow through shallow soil on a hillslope. The resulting equations were the basis for a shallow-soil TOPMODEL (STOPMODEL). The common TOPMODEL theory implicitly assumes a water table below the entire watershed and this does not conceptually apply to systems hydrologically controlled by shallow interflow of perched groundwater. STOPMODEL provides an approach for extending TOPMODEL's conceptualization to apply to shallow, interflow-driven watersheds by using soil moisture deficit instead of water table depth as the state variable. Deriving STOPMODEL by using a hydraulic conductivity function that changes exponentially with soil moisture content results in equations that look very similar to those commonly associated with TOPMODEL. This alternative way of conceptualizing TOPMODEL makes the modelling approach available to researchers, planners, and engineers who work in areas where TOPMODEL was previously believed to be unsuited, such as the New York City Watershed in the Catskills region of New York State.

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