The article studies the formation features of the bottomhole zones in productive formations during operation of production wells in the north of the Perm Territory. Their distinctive feature is the high gas saturation of formation oil. The most widely used parameter in Russian and world practice – the skin factor was used as a criterion characterizing the state of the bottomhole zone. Analysis of scientific publications has shown that one of the main problems of applying the skin factor to assess the state of bottomhole zones is the ambiguity of interpretations of its physical meaning and the impossibility of identifying the prevailing factors that form its value. The paper proposes an approach to identifying such factors in the conditions of the fields under consideration, based on multivariate correlation-regression analysis. Choice of this tool is due to the complexity of the processes occurring in the “formation – bottomhole zone – well” system. When describing complex multifactorial processes, the chosen method demonstrates a high degree of reliability. For a large number of wells in the region, significant material was collected and summarized, including the results of determining the skin factor (1102 values) during hydrodynamic investigations, as well as data on the values of various geological and technological indicators, which can probably be statistically related to the value of the skin factor. A series of multidimensional mathematical models has been built; the skin factor was used as a predicted parameter, and data on the values of geological and technological indicators were used as independent indicators. Analysis of the constructed models is a key stage of this study. Set of parameters included in the multidimensional models, sequence of their inclusion and contribution to the total value of the achieved determination coefficient as the main indicator for the performance of the constructed models were studied. It has been established that the main factor influencing the state of the bottomhole zone is oil degassing. Significant differences in the formation features of the skin factor in the terrigenous and carbonate sediments at the fields under consideration have been determined.
Галкин Владислав Игнатьевич-доктор геолого-минералогических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой геологии нефти и газа (тел.:
Determining the reliable values of the filtration parameters of productive reservoirs is the most important task in monitoring the processes of reserve production. Hydrodynamic studies of wells by the pressure build-up method, as well as a modern method based on production curve analysis (Decline Curve Analysis (DCA)), are some of the effective methods for solving this problem. This paper is devoted to assessing the reliability of these two methods in determining the filtration parameters of terrigenous and carbonaceous productive deposits of oil fields in the Perm Krai. The materials of 150 conditioned and highly informative (obtained using high-precision depth instruments) studies of wells were used to solve this problem, including 100 studies conducted in terrigenous reservoirs (C1v) and 50 carried out in carbonate reservoirs (C2b). To solve the problem, an effective tool was used—multivariate regression analysis. This approach is new and has not been previously used to assess the reliability of determining the filtration parameters of reservoir systems by different research methods. With its use, a series of statistical models with varying degrees of detail was built. A series of multivariate mathematical models of well flow rates using the filtration parameters determined for each of the methods is constructed. The inclusion or non-inclusion of these filtration parameters in the resulting flow rate models allows us to give a reasonable assessment of the possibility of using the pressure build-up method and the DCA method. All the constructed models are characterized by high statistical estimates: in all cases, a high value of the determination coefficient was obtained, and the probability of an error in all cases was significantly less than 5%. As applied to the fields under consideration, it was found that both methods demonstrate stable results in terrigenous reservoirs. The permeability determined by the DCA method and the pressure build-up curve does not control the flow of the fluid in carbonate reservoirs, which proves the complexity of the filtration processes occurring in them. The DCA method is recommended for use to determine the permeability and skin factor in the conditions of terrigenous reservoirs.
The paper considers probabilistic approach application to assess zonal oil and gas potential of the Visimskaya monocline area. The earlier studies have shown that the processes of generation, migration and accumulation of hydrocarbons (HC) shall be most effectually assessed from a probabilistic standpoint. Generation processes are best described by a complex probabilistic criterion – PcompG , migration and accumulation processes – by PcompMAC [1]. These criteria were used to develop a multivariate statistical model – Pcompzon , acting as an estimate of the system emergence regarding the zonal oil and gas potential. The values were ranked from maximum to minimum to assess the effect of PcompG and PcompMAC indicators on Pcompzon at different ranges of its values. We successively built and analysed 379 models. The analysis of these models has shown that at Pcompzon>0.5 there is a congruent effect of PcompG and PcompMAC on this indicator, the effect being different at Pcompzon<0.5. A pattern of its variation over the area was built based on Pcompzon values, which allowed differentiating the area of the Visimskaya monocline into a high-potential western part and a lower-potential eastern part.
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