Background Years of life lost (YLL) is recently used as a more insightful indicator to assess the mortality impact of COVID-19. However, this indicator still has methodological limits. This study aims to propose an alternative approach and new index, early-death weeks. Methods The natural mortality and social mortality laws were employed to support two essential assumptions: the sequential and translational early-mortality patterns of COVID-19. This approach was then used with the data related to COVID-19 to calculate early-death weeks associated with COVID-19 in France, the UK and the USA. Results As of week 20 of 2021, the rate of the total number of early-death weeks per the population of the USA is nearly two times compared to that of France and the UK, with 0.004% to 0.0021 and 0.0023%, respectively. The average numbers of early-death weeks after converting to units of years are 1.2, 1.0 and 1.3 years in France, the UK and the USA, respectively. Conclusions The new approach is significantly different from death counts, excess deaths and YLL. The early-death week index provides more insights into COVID-19 and can be applied promptly at any time as well as anywhere once excess deaths have occurred.
Background Years of life lost (YLL) is a preferable indicator to assess the mortality impact of COVID‐19. This indicator still has limits, however. Therefore, a new approach and its early‐death weeks (eDW) index has been recently proposed to alter YLL. This study aims to add a new approach, the moving excess‐deficit mortality model, and its method, the weeks of life lost (WLL) index. The new method was then used to measure WLL associated with COVID‐19 in the United States (US). Methods The natural mortality law and the random pattern of spreading COVID‐19 were employed to support calculating WLL. The natural mortality law implied that under the same living conditions and the weaker would die earlier. The random spreading of COVID‐19 assumed that COVID‐19 causes the weekly number of early deaths in equal proportions from all of those who would have died eventually distributed through the pandemic. Results From Week 02 of 2020 to Week 44 of 2021, we found that the US population has lost 56,270,300 weeks to COVID‐19; the average WLL per COVID‐19‐related death is 74 or 1.4 in the unit of years. Conclusions The results do not depend on the high heterogeneity of deaths (e.g., age, gender, health status) and on whether COVID‐19 is the main cause of death. The moving excess‐deficit mortality model and WLL index can be applied promptly at any time and anywhere once excess deaths occurred during the pandemic. The index also provides critical insights into COVID‐19, which can support making public health policies and decisions.
Flood is a natural disaster that can cause loss of life and damage to property. The objective of this study is to create a flood map of Yen Bai city, where flood occurs regularly during heavy rain and Thao River's water level rises. The study used Mike Flood model based on the connection of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic models. The model parameters were calibrated and validated againts observed water level data of two major flood events in August 2008 and July 2009 which were measured by Bao Ha and Yen Bai hydrological stations, in addition with historical flood survey data in 2008. Flood map was developed corresponding to the alarm levels. The results show that the most affected areas by flood are 4 communes of Au Lau, Hop Minh, Tuy Loc, and Hong Ha wards.
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