Eco‐cultural landscapes are assumed to be favorable environments for the persistence of biodiversity, but global change may affect differently their terrestrial and aquatic components. Few long‐term studies have examined how multiple, global change stressors may affect wetland biodiversity in such environments. Facultative paedomorphosis is a spectacular example of intra‐specific variation, in which biphasic (metamorphosing) amphibians coexist with fully aquatic conspecifics that do not metamorphose (paedomorphs). Paedomorphosis is seriously threatened by global change stressors, but it is unknown to what extent traditional management will allow its long‐term persistence. Here, we tested the effects of alien species introductions while taking into account land use and climate changes on the distribution of two polymorphic newt species (Ichthyosaura alpestris and Lissotriton graecus) in Montenegro by using a 68‐yr data set and Bayesian mixed models integrating complex spatial and temporal structures. We found that, despite the persistence of natural landscapes, metamorphs dramatically declined and paedomorphs were nearly extirpated, losing 99.9% of their aquatic area of occupancy and all the major populations. Fish introduction was the main determinant of decline for both phenotypes. Climate and the presence of crayfish further contributed to the decline of metamorphs, which started later and was less dramatic than that of paedomorphs. The near extinction of paedomorphosis on a country‐wide scale shows how invasive species determine broad‐scale impacts, which can be even stronger than other global change stressors, and underlines the need for immediate management actions to avoid the extinction of a unique developmental process, paedomorphosis.
Hermann's tortoise (Testudo hermanni) is among the conservation priorities in the European Union. Consequently, it is included in Annexes II and IV of the EU Habitats Directive, Annex II of the Bern Convention, and Annex II of the CITES Convention. Hermann's tortoise conservation programs compile insights on the threats affecting population viability, along with factors shaping the species' distribution. Serbian populations of the eastern subspecies (Testudo hermanni boettgeri) seem numerous and therefore prosperous, but recent population viability analyses revealed that they are susceptible to rapid demographic changes and/or habitat destruction. This implies the need for effective population monitoring and protection, as well as mapping and preservation of suitable habitats. In this paper we summarized current knowledge about the geographic distribution of Hermann's tortoise in Serbia and modeled its ecological niche. Our results corroborate and uphold the known species' distribution in Serbia. Most suitable habitats are situated in the lowland areas of eastern, central and southern Serbia, under semi-open habitats, such as pastures and shrubs, broadleaf forests, and all successional stages in between. The results provided in this paper should be considered in the selection and shaping of NATURA 2000 sites in Serbia.
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