This paper utilizes standard cumulative residual analysis to study the response of stock prices to completely unanticipated events—fatal commercial airline crashes. Results indicate that the immediate negative reaction to fatal airline crashes is significant for only one full trading day after the event occurs. Hence, the market appears to assimilate the new information rapidly, even if the crash occurs in a remote geographic location. The paper also considers market response after the initial reaction period by assuming that the actual cumulative average residuals are drawn from the same distribution as the pre‐crash base period and by calculating the probabilities that observed changes would occur. Results provide no evidence that underreaction or overreaction appeared in the initial response period. The hypothesis of complete, immediate adjustment is also supported by a repetition of the analysis on the subsample of airplane crashes where the greatest potential loss occurs.
This study analyzes the effect that two options created by the inclusion of a sinking fund clause in a bond indenture have on the bond issue's secondary market risk premium. The impact of market prices that exceed current sinking fund redemption prices, and of par versus premium redemption, is clearly apparent when a set of issue-specific and macroeconomic control variables are incorporated into a model of bond risk premia. Thus. secondary market prices for the large-volume utility bond transactions in the sample reflect knowledge of individual-issue. time-varying indenture characteristics.*University of Miami. The authors wish to thank the anonymous referees for their constructive comments. Responsibility for any errors rests with the authors.
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