Decision analysis and risk analysis techniques are used to analyze and evaluate a wide variety of problems. Recently, the electric utility industry has used these techniques for health, environmental, and economic risks associated with current and past operations. In some instances, the true health and environmental hazards posed by certain chemicals (for example, PCBs and dioxin) may be controversial and widely debated by the scientific and regulatory community. Regardless of the outcomes of such debates, the continued use or presence of these chemicals may pose a very real economic risk to the utility in the form of cleanup costs, fines, liabilities, public relations, or other direct or indirect costs. Decision analysis and risk analysis techniques are used to manage these economic risks. In other contexts, the utility may need an accurate quantitative assessment of health and environmental risks and an evaluation of alternative mitigation strategies. Some of the same techniques are applied to the environmental risk analysis problem.

Systemic risk propagated through over-the-counter derivatives can best be managed by a public-private central counterparty clearing house (CCP). Though private CCPs provide an adequate amount of clearing's private good, they do not provide the socially optimal level of the public good or impure goods. By undersupplying both public and impure goods, private CCPs may exacerbate the conditions under which financial crises develop and propagate. A publicprivate partnership could align incentives so that the CCP produces the socially optimal level of the private, public, and impure goods. A partnership using a two-part pricing scheme for OTC structured composite transactions could properly compensate both partners and provide an effective policy instrument for controlling systemic risk. Moreover this structure, in contrast to current proposed government regulations, will not drive out the "good" with the "bad" OTC derivative instruments. 1 Centralized Clearing for Over-the-Counter DerivativesGordon Rausser*, William Balson**, and Reid Stevens*** Copyright 2009Abstract Systemic risk propagated through over-the-counter derivatives can best be managed by a public-private central counterparty clearing house (CCP). Though private CCPs provide an adequate amount of clearing's private good, they do not provide the socially optimal level of the public good or impure goods. By undersupplying both public and impure goods, private CCPs may exacerbate the conditions under which financial crises develop and propagate. A public-private partnership could align incentives so that the CCP produces the socially optimal level of the private, public, and impure goods. A partnership using a two-part pricing scheme for OTC structured composite transactions could properly compensate both partners and provide an effective policy instrument for controlling systemic risk. Moreover this structure, in contrast to current proposed government regulations, will not drive out the -good‖ with the -bad‖ OTC derivative instruments.

Systemic risk propagated through over-the-counter derivatives can best be managed by a public-private central counterparty clearing house (CCP). Though private CCPs provide an adequate amount of clearing's private good, they do not provide the socially optimal level of the public good or impure goods. By undersupplying both public and impure goods, private CCPs may exacerbate the conditions under which financial crises develop and propagate. A publicprivate partnership could align incentives so that the CCP produces the socially optimal level of the private, public, and impure goods. A partnership using a two-part pricing scheme for OTC structured composite transactions could properly compensate both partners and provide an effective policy instrument for controlling systemic risk. Moreover this structure, in contrast to current proposed government regulations, will not drive out the "good" with the "bad" OTC derivative instruments. 1 Centralized Clearing for Over-the-Counter DerivativesGordon Rausser*, William Balson**, and Reid Stevens*** Copyright 2009Abstract Systemic risk propagated through over-the-counter derivatives can best be managed by a public-private central counterparty clearing house (CCP). Though private CCPs provide an adequate amount of clearing's private good, they do not provide the socially optimal level of the public good or impure goods. By undersupplying both public and impure goods, private CCPs may exacerbate the conditions under which financial crises develop and propagate. A public-private partnership could align incentives so that the CCP produces the socially optimal level of the private, public, and impure goods. A partnership using a two-part pricing scheme for OTC structured composite transactions could properly compensate both partners and provide an effective policy instrument for controlling systemic risk. Moreover this structure, in contrast to current proposed government regulations, will not drive out the -good‖ with the -bad‖ OTC derivative instruments.

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Purpose Risk-based clearing has been proposed by Rausser et al. (2010) for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. This paper aims to illustrate the application of risk-based margins to a case study of the mortgage-backed securities derivative portfolio of the American International Group (AIG) during the period 2005-2008. There exists sufficient publicly available information to examine AIG’s derivative portfolio and how that portfolio would depend on conjectural changes in margin requirements imposed on its OTC derivative positions. Generally, such data on OTC derivative portfolio positions are unavailable in the public domain, and thus, the AIG data provide a unique opportunity for an objective evaluation. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses modern financial methodology to evaluate risk-based margining and collateralization for the major OTC derivative portfolio of the AIG. Findings This analysis reveals that a risk-based margin procedure would have led to earlier margin calls of greater magnitude initially than the collateral calls actually faced by AIG Financial Products (AIGFP). The total margin ultimately required by the risk-based procedure, however, is similar in magnitude to the collateral calls faced by AIGFP by August 2008. It is likely that a risk-based clearing procedure applied to AIG’s OTC contracts would have led to the AIG undertaking significant hedging and liquidation of their OTC positions well before the losses built up to the point they had, perhaps avoiding the federal government’s orchestrated restructuring that occurred in September 2008. Originality/value There has been no published risk-based evaluations of a major OTC portfolio of derivatives for any company, let alone the AIG.