The objectives of this study are: (a) to determine the occurrence of permanent work disability (PWD) in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA); (b) to identify prognostic groups of patients; (c) to assess the employment rates for these groups over time. Seventy-three gainfully employed consecutive out-patients with early RA (> or = 5 ARA 1958 criteria, disease duration < or = 12 months) at time one (T1) were re-examined at time two (T2) after a mean follow-up of 6 yr (S.D. +/- 2 yr). Potential risk factors, identified at T1, for PWD at T2 were entered in a tree structured survival analysis using RECPAM (RECursive Partition and AMalgamation). Cumulative 3 yr employment rates (3-yrER +/- S.E.M.) were computed from the resulting Kaplan-Meier curves. At T2, PWD occurred in 27 of the 73 patients (37%). The fastest decline in the employment rate was found within the first 3 yr of the disease onset, with a 3-yrER reduced to 73 +/- 5%. The group with the poorest prognosis (n = 14; 3-yrER 14 +/- 9%) was defined by age > or = 50 yr with either ESR > or = 60 mm/h or the combination of modified functional class (1-7) > or = 4 with a disease duration > or = 7 months. An intermediate group (n = 38; 3-yrER 79 +/- 6%) was defined by (a) age > or = 50 yr and low or moderate disease activity, (b) age < 50 yr and more strenuous job-related physical requirements, (c) age < 50 yr and less strenuous work, but joint count > or = 15. No case of PWD occurred in 21 individuals aged < 50 yr with a joint count < 15 and less physically demanding jobs. PWD occurs early in a substantial number of patients with RA. RECPAM defines risk profiles that can readily be applied in actual clinical situations and allow an estimation of the risk of PWD at different time points using the resulting Kaplan-Meier curves.

The German version of the HAQ presented here and the two versions of the HFAQ are reliable and valid instruments for measuring functional disability in a German-speaking population with RA. The construct measured by the HAQ and both versions of the HFAQ showed a high degree of correspondence.

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Of 88 selected patients with possible ankylosing spondylitis (AS) 54 (61%) participated in two phases of a 10 years' follow-up study. Thirty-two (59%) developed definite AS according to the New York criteria, 10 (19%) had possible/undifferentiated seronegative spondylarthropathy (SSA) and 12 patients had other diagnoses. Only 3 (9%) of 35 patients with sacroiliitis did not fulfill the New York criteria for definite AS until the last examination. Sacroiliitis and radiological spinal signs of AS appeared rather late above a mean age of 40 years and after a mean disease duration of more than 10 years. After 18 years mean disease duration 25 (78%) of 32 AS patients had good or sufficient functional capacity indicating an overall good functional prognosis. HLA B27 typing proved to be useful in patients with possible early AS: 29 (71%) of 41 B27 positive and 3 (23%) of 13 B27 negative patients developed definite AS (p less than 0.005). A combination of the B27 test with data of the history, clinical, laboratory, and radiological examination proposed as early diagnostic criteria detected patients with the outcome diagnosis of definite AS with even higher significance (p less than 0.001). These criteria were also useful in the identification of patients with possible or undifferentiated SSA. The recently recognized entity of undifferentiated SSA should only be diagnosed after long term follow-up.