The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related head and neck cancer (HNSCC) is rising globally, presenting challenges for optimized clinical management. To date, it remains unclear which biomarker best reflects HPV-driven carcinogenesis, a process that is associated with better therapeutic response and outcome compared to tobacco/alcohol-induced cancers. Six potential HPV surrogate biomarkers were analyzed using FFPE tissue samples from 153 HNSCC patients (n = 78 oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC), n = 35 laryngeal cancer, n = 23 hypopharyngeal cancer, n = 17 oral cavity cancer): p16, CyclinD1, pRb, dual immunohistochemical staining of p16 and Ki67, HPV-DNA-PCR, and HPV-DNA-in situ hybridization (ISH). Biomarkers were analyzed for correlation with one another, tumor subsite, and patient survival. P16-IHC alone showed the best performance for discriminating between good (high expression) vs poor outcome (low expression; p = 0.0030) in OPSCC patients. Additionally, HPV-DNA-ISH (p = 0.0039), HPV-DNA-PCR (p = 0.0113), and p16-Ki67 dual stain (p = 0.0047) were significantly associated with prognosis in uni- and multivariable analysis for oropharyngeal cancer. In the non-OPSCC group, however, none of the aforementioned surrogate markers was prognostic. Taken together, P16-IHC as a single biomarker displays the best diagnostic accuracy for prognosis stratification in OPSCC patients with a direct detection of HPV-DNA by PCR or ISH as well as p16-Ki67 dual stain as potential alternatives.

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