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This paper aims to evaluate sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in twelve large-scale river basins worldwide, considering the mean flow and the two runoff quantiles Q 10 (high flow), and Q 90 (low flow). First, changes in annual low flow, annual high flow and mean annual runoff were evaluated using simulation results from a multi-hydrological-model (nine hydrological models, HMs) and a multi-scenario approach

Abstract.Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We performed a catchment-scale experimental fire to improve insight into the drivers of fire impact on hydrology. In north-central Portugal, rainfall, canopy interception, streamflow and soil moisture were monitored in small shrub-covered paired catchments pre-and post-fire. The shrub cover was medium dense to dense (44 to 84 %) and pre-fire canopy interception was on average 48.7 % of total rainfall. Fire increased streamflow volumes 1.6 times more than predicted, resulting in increased runoff coefficients and changed rainfall-streamflow relationships -although the increase in streamflow per unit rainfall was only significant at the subcatchment-scale. Fire also fastened the response of topsoil moisture to rainfall from 2.7 to 2.1 h (p = 0.058), and caused more rapid drying of topsoils after rain events. Since soil physical changes due to fire were not apparent, we suggest that changes resulting from vegetation removal played an important role in increasing streamflow after fire. Results stress that fire impact on hydrology is largely affected by scale, highlight the hydrological impact of fire on small scales, and emphasize the risk of overestimating fire impact when upscaling plot-scale studies to the catchmentscale. Finally, they increase understanding of the processes contributing to post-fire flooding and erosion events.

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[1] Groundwater uptake can play a major role in the survival of vegetation in semiarid areas, but this has not yet been included in an earlier developed ecohydrological stochastic framework. In this paper we provide a piecewise linear equation which includes capillary fluxes from shallow groundwater in the loss function of the ecohydrological stochastic model. The results indicate that this model is able to simulate the capillary fluxes, and the model also reflects the impact of the fluxes on the soil moisture balance. In addition, the results are analytically tractable and allow calculation of the probability density functions of soil water saturation and water stress for different groundwater depths below the root zone.Citation: Vervoort, R. W., and S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee (2008), Simulating the effect of capillary flux on the soil water balance in a stochastic ecohydrological framework, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08425,