No abstract

By using the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey in 2004, this paper seeks to quantify the potential role and impacts of a social pension scheme for reducing elderly poverty in Vietnam. We simulate how the poverty rate, poverty gap, and poverty severity of the elderly would have been changed in the counterfactual situation that such a scheme had been introduced to Vietnam in the past. We consider a number of categorical targeting groups of elderly people along with various transfer parameters to assess the impacts of the scheme on social welfare. We find that, depending on the characteristics of the social pension, there would be beneficial poverty reductions, but also large leakages to the non-poor people. For a variety of measures, our results suggest that targeting the elderly in rural areas might be the most effective use of limited resources. Also, simulations for different budgetary constraints show that, even with limited budgeting, a social pension scheme would significantly reduce poverty incidence for the elderly. For example, the elderly poverty gap could be reduced by almost 60 percent with a program that costs one percent of GDP.

Remittances can potentially help to promote economic development by providing a mechanism to share risks, reduce poverty, and improve equality. However, the overall impacts of remittances are uncertain from the view of economic theory as different mechanisms lead to opposite impacts. Since the 1990s, Vietnam has experienced a dramatic growth in remittance flows from abroad. Vietnam is a unique case for study, as economic motives historically played a smaller role in outward migration. Fortunately, household survey data is available for this time period, allowing for a detailed analysis of the impacts of international remittances on Vietnam. Specifically, we examine the characteristics of recipients and the impacts of international remittances on economic inequality and poverty. We conclude that international remittances are helping to improve equality. As such, new development policies must also account for potential impacts on remittance flows.2

We identify determinants of elderly poverty in Vietnam using household survey data from 2004. The elderly living in urban and rural areas face significantly different conditions. Some factors impact poverty in both urban and rural areas (e.g. age, marital status, region and remittance receipts), some factors are insignificant in both areas (e.g. living arrangements and household head characteristics) and some factors have a differing impact in the two areas (e.g. gender, ethnicity, and household composition and size). With these findings, we formulate policy priorities, including reducing regional disparities, promoting the rural economy and reforming social security.

No abstract