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Background and purpose: Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is caused by reduced levels of survival of motor neuron (SMN) protein due to deletions and/or mutations in the SMN1 gene. Risdiplam is an orally administered molecule that modifies SMN2 pre-mRNA splicing to increase functional SMN protein.Methods: SUNFISH Part 1 was a dose-finding study conducted in 51 individuals with types 2 and 3 SMA aged 2-25 years. A dose-escalation method was used to identify the This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Risdiplam is an oral, survival of motor neuron 2 (SMN2) pre-mRNA splicing modifier approved for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). SUNFISH (NCT02908685) Part 2, a Phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, investigated the efficacy and safety of risdiplam in type 2 and non‑ambulant type 3 SMA. The primary endpoint was met: a significantly greater change from baseline in 32-item Motor Function Measure (MFM32) total score was observed with risdiplam compared with placebo at month 12. After 12 months, all participants received risdiplam while preserving initial treatment blinding. We report 24-month efficacy and safety results in this population. Month 24 exploratory endpoints included change from baseline in MFM32 and safety. MFM‑derived results were compared with an external comparator. At month 24 of risdiplam treatment, 32% of patients demonstrated improvement (a change of ≥ 3) from baseline in MFM32 total score; 58% showed stabilization (a change of ≥ 0). Compared with an external comparator, a treatment difference of 3.12 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.67–4.57) in favor of risdiplam was observed in MFM-derived scores. Overall, gains in motor function at month 12 were maintained or improved upon at month 24. In patients initially receiving placebo, MFM32 remained stable compared with baseline (0.31 [95% CI – 0.65 to 1.28]) after 12 months of risdiplam; 16% of patients improved their score and 59% exhibited stabilization. The safety profile after 24 months was consistent with that observed after 12 months. Risdiplam over 24 months resulted in further improvement or stabilization in motor function, confirming the benefit of longer-term treatment.

One of the main aims of early phase clinical trials is to identify a safe dose with an indication of therapeutic benefit to administer to subjects in further studies. Ideally therefore, dose-limiting events (DLEs) and responses indicative of efficacy should be considered in the dose-escalation procedure. Several methods have been suggested for incorporating both DLEs and efficacy responses in early phase dose-escalation trials. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a Bayesian adaptive approach based on one binary response (occurrence of a DLE) and one continuous response (a measure of potential efficacy) per subject. A logistic regression and a linear log-log relationship are used respectively to model the binary DLEs and the continuous efficacy responses. A gain function concerning both the DLEs and efficacy responses is used to determine the dose to administer to the next cohort of subjects. Stopping rules are proposed to enable efficient decision making. Simulation results shows that our approach performs better than taking account of DLE responses alone. To assess the robustness of the approach, scenarios where the efficacy responses of subjects are generated from an Emax model, but modelled by the linear log-log model are also considered. This evaluation shows that the simpler log-log model leads to robust recommendations even under this model showing that it is a useful approximation to the difficulty in estimating Emax model. Additionally, we find comparable performance to alternative approaches using efficacy and safety for dose-finding.

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