We use a regime-switching model approach to investigate the dynamic linkages between the exchange rates and stock market returns for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The univariate analysis indicates that stock returns of the BRICS countries evolve according to two different regimes: a low volatility regime and a high volatility regime. On the other hand, our evidence from Markov switching VAR models suggests that stock markets have more influence on exchange rates during both calm and turbulent periods. These empirical insights have important implications for portfolio investments and currency risk hedging.

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility and market risk of four widely traded commodities (crude oil, natural gas, gold, and silver). A broad set of the most popular linear and nonlinear GARCH-type models is used to investigate this relevancy. Our in-sample and out-of-sample results show that volatility of commodity returns can be better described by nonlinear volatility models accommodating the long memory and asymmetry features. In particular, the FIAPARCH model is found to be the best suited for estimating the VaR forecasts for both short and long trading positions. This model also gives for all four commodities the lowest number of violations under the Basel II Accord rule, given a risk exposure at the 99% confidence level. Several implications for commodity market risks, policy regulations and hedging strategies can be drawn from the obtained results.

No abstract

No abstract