Background and Aims To investigate the association between serum albumin levels within 24 hrs of patient admission and the development of persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis. Methods A total of 700 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression and subgroup analysis determined whether decreased albumin was independently associated with persistent organ failure and mortality. The diagnostic performance of serum albumin was evaluated by the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Results As levels of serum albumin decrease, the risk of persistent organ failure significantly increases (Ptrend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure was 3.5%, 10.6%, and 41.6% in patients with normal albumin and mild and severe hypoalbuminaemia, respectively. Decreased albumin levels were also proportionally associated with prolonged hospital stay (Ptrend < 0.001) and the risk of death (Ptrend < 0.001). Multivariate analysis suggested that biliary etiology, chronic concomitant diseases, hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen, and the serum albumin level were independently associated with persistent organ failure. Blood urea nitrogen and the serum albumin level were also independently associated with mortality. The area under ROC curves of albumin for predicting organ failure and mortality were 0.78 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusion A low serum albumin is independently associated with an increased risk of developing of persistent organ failure and death in acute pancreatitis. It may also be useful for the prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis.

BackgroundAll patients with liver cirrhosis are recommended to undergo an evaluation of esophageal varices (EV) to assess their risk of bleeding. Predicting the presence of EV through non-invasive means may reduce a large number of unnecessary endoscopies. This study was designed to develop a predictive model for varices in patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis.MethodsThe retrospective analysis was performed in 146 patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. The data were assessed by univariate analysis and a multivariate logistic regression analysis. In addition, the receiver operating characteristic curves were also applied to calculate and compare the accuracy of the model and other single parameters for the diagnosis of esophageal varices.ResultsWe found the prevalence of EV in patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis to be 74.7%. In addition, platelet count, spleen width, portal vein diameter and platelet count/spleen width ratio were significantly associated with the presence of esophageal varices on univariate analysis. A multivariate analysis revealed that only the spleen width and portal vein diameter were independent risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of regression function (RF) model, which was composed of the spleen width and portal vein diameter, was higher than that of the platelet count. With a cut-off value of 0.3631, the RF model had an excellent sensitivity of 87.2% and an acceptable specificity of 59.5% with an overall accuracy of 80.1%.ConclusionOur data suggest that portal vein diameter and spleen width rather than platelet count may predict the presence of varices in patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis, and that the RF model may help physicians to identify patients who would most likely benefit from screenings for EV.

Background In December 2019, a novel human-infecting coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, had emerged. The WHO has classified the epidemic as a “public health emergency of international concern”. A dramatic situation has unfolded with thousands of deaths, occurring mainly in the aged and very ill people. Epidemiological studies suggest that immune system function is impaired in elderly individuals and these subjects often present a deficiency in fat-soluble and hydrosoluble vitamins. Methods We searched for reviews describing the characteristics of autoimmune diseases and the available therapeutic protocols for their treatment. We set them as a paradigm with the purpose to uncover common pathogenetic mechanisms between these pathological conditions and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Furthermore, we searched for studies describing the possible efficacy of vitamins A, D, E, and C in improving the immune system function. Results SARS-CoV-2 infection induces strong immune system dysfunction characterized by the development of an intense proinflammatory response in the host, and the development of a life-threatening condition defined as cytokine release syndrome (CRS). This leads to acute respiratory syndrome (ARDS), mainly in aged people. High mortality and lethality rates have been observed in elderly subjects with CoV-2-related infection. Conclusions Vitamins may shift the proinflammatory Th17-mediated immune response arising in autoimmune diseases towards a T-cell regulatory phenotype. This review discusses the possible activity of vitamins A, D, E, and C in restoring normal antiviral immune system function and the potential therapeutic role of these micronutrients as part of a therapeutic strategy against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Biliary plastic stents plus endoscopic sphincterotomy without stone extraction as primary therapy at initial ERCP is a safe and effective method in the management of large or multiple CBD stones.

Introduction The available prognostic scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have limitations that restrict their clinical value. The aim of this study was to develop a simple model (score) that could rapidly identify those at risk for SAP. Methods We derived a risk model using a retrospective cohort of 700 patients by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to create risk categories. The model was internally validated by a tenfold cross-validation and externally validated in a separate prospective cohort of 194 patients. Results The incidence of SAP was 9.7% in the derivation cohort and 9.3% in the validation cohort. A prognostic score (We denoted it as the SABP score), ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen and pleural effusion, was developed by logistic regression and bootstrapping analysis. Patients could be divided into three risk categories according to total SABP score based on CART analysis. The mean probability of developing SAP was 1.9%, 12.8% and 41.6% in patients with low (0–3), moderate (4–6) and high (7–10) SABP score, respectively. The AUCs of prognostic score in tenfold cross-validation was 0.873 and 0.872 in the external validation. Conclusion Our risk prediction score may assist physicians in predicting the development of SAP. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12967-019-1903-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.