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The frequency and intensity of typhoons are expected to increase over time due to climate change. These changes may expose forests to more windthrow in the future, and increasing the resilience of hemiboreal forests through forest management after windthrow is important. Here, we quantified forest structure recovery using aerial photos and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data after catastrophic windthrow events. Our aims are to test the following three hypotheses: (1) forest structure will not recover within 30 years after windthrow, (2) forest recovery will be affected not only by salvaging but also pre-windthrow attributes and geographical features, and (3) various post-windthrow management including salvaging will drastically alter tree species composition and delay forest recovery. Our results revealed that hypothesis (1) and (2) were supported and (3) was partially supported. The ordination results suggested that more than 30 years were needed to recover canopy tree height after windthrow in hemiboreal forests in Hokkaido, Japan. Salvage logging did not delay natural succession, but it significantly decreased the cover ratio of conifer species sites (0.107 ± 0.023) compared with natural succession sites (0.310 ± 0.091). The higher the elevation, the steeper the site, and the higher the average canopy height before windthrow, the slower the recovery of forest stands after windthrow and salvaging. Scarification and planting after salvage logging significantly increased the number of canopy trees, but those sites differed completely in species composition from the old growth forests. Our study thus determined that the choice and intensity of post-disturbance management in hemiboreal forests should be carefully considered based on the management purpose and local characteristics.

A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision making for the sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, the shrinking and aging population will likely lead to a situation of underuse of natural resources, resulting in rewilding of terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted a quantitative scenario analysis of natural capital and ESs by linking model and social scenarios on a local scale. The case study area was the Bekanbeushi River Watershed in northern Japan. LANDIS-II model (a forest landscape model) was used to simulate the vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass considering impacts of forest and pasture land management. Four "population distribution" and "capital preference" scenarios were translated into forest and pasture land management. The population distribution and capital preference assumptions resulted in different consequences for natural capital and ESs. The population distribution affected the spatial allocation of abandoned pasture land and level of isolation of managed pasture land. The capital preference assumptions largely affected the consequences for ESs. Finally, these simulation results demonstrated the capacity to feed quantitative information to the narrative scenarios. Our process-based approach provides insight into the relationships among social drivers, ecological processes and the consequences that will affect natural capital and ESs, which can contribute to decision making and sustainability design of regions, which may face issues associated with underuse in the future.

Haga et al.Renewable Energy-Biodiversity Nexus Scenarios raptors declined. However, an appropriate mixture of the two RE sources satisfied the regional energy demand and maintained ecological conditions. Our results suggest that land-energy planning should consider energy-biodiversity nexuses to strike a balance between decarbonization and biodiversity conservation.