We explore the possibility of structural breaks in the realized volatility with the observed long-memory property for the daily Deutschemark/Dollar, Yen/Dollar and Yen/Deutschemark spot exchange rate realized volatility. The paper finds that the structural breaks can partly explain the persistence of realized volatility. We propose a VAR-RV-Break model that provides a superior predictive ability compared to most of the forecasting models when the future break is known. With unknown break dates and sizes, we find that the VAR-RV-I(d) long memory model, however, is a very robust forecasting method even when the true financial volatility series are generated by structural breaks.JEL classification: C32, C52, C53, G10
The paper examines the short-run spillover effects of daily stock returns and volatilities between the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 stock index in the US and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index in China. First, we find that a structural break occurred in the SSE stock return mean in December 2005. Second, by analyzing modified general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)(1,1)-M models, we find evidence of a symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effect from the US to the China stock market in the post-break period. Third, we observe the symmetric volatility spillover effect from China to the US in the post-break period.Volatility spillover, China stock market, structural break, GARCH model,
This article outlines a framework for evaluating the decision of undergraduate students to engage in term-time employment as a method of financing higher education. We then examine the impact of work on academic achievement and find that employment has modest negative effects on student grades, with a grade point average (GPA) falling by 0.007 points per work hour. We use a unique custom dataset based on students at a traditional regional state university that provides information on student motivations and allows us to directly address some of the endogeneity problems that affect existing literature. We find that students who work for primarily financial reasons earn lower grades than students who work for career-specific skills but higher grades than those students motivated by a desire for general work experience.
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