With the widespread use of intelligent teaching, data containing student performance information continues to emerge, and artificial intelligence technology based on big data has made a qualitative leap. At present, the prediction of college students’ sports performance is only based on the past performance, and it does not reflect the student’s training effect very well. In order to solve these problems, this paper puts forward the analysis and simulation of college sports performance fusion with adaptive federated deep learning algorithm, aiming to study the influencing factors of student sports performance and suggestions for improvement. This paper uses an adaptive federated learning method and a personalized federated learning algorithm based on deep learning and then proposes a student performance prediction method. These methods integrate the quantitative methods of motor skill assessment and establish standards for college students, which are good standards for evaluating college students’ sports skills. This paper adopts the performance prediction framework and then establishes the sports performance prediction model. Through the analysis of sports performance analysis examples, it is concluded that the model proposed in this paper can accurately predict the student’s sports performance, and the average accuracy rate of each sports item has reached 91.7%.

Sports social organizations refer to nonprofit, nongovernmental, and group organizations that achieve specific service goals and common aspirations and spontaneously form various sports and fitness activities in accordance with the rules. This article aims to study how to optimize the index system of the capacity developments by relying on image optimization and recognition simulation. This article puts forward the relevant theoretical knowledge of image optimization and recognition and capacity developments and proposes two algorithms based on image optimization and recognition. In 2019, the percentage of growth of sports social organizations rose from 6.7% to the final 27%; in 2020, the growth rate of sports social organizations is getting higher and higher, from 9% at the beginning to 34% at the end. It can be seen that people’s love for sports activities is getting higher and higher, and the state is paying more and more attention to sports social organizations. The factors that affect the development ability of sports social organizations include the quality, education, and management capabilities of the members of the organization, and the country and the government should also take corresponding measures. The improvement of the development ability of sports social organizations is of great significance to the development of sports social organizations.