Scores produced by statistical classifiers in many clinical decision support systems and other medical diagnostic devices are generally on an arbitrary scale, so the clinical meaning of these scores is unclear. Calibration of classifier scores to a meaningful scale such as the probability of disease is potentially useful when such scores are used by a physician. In this work, we investigated three methods (parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric) for calibrating classifier scores to the probability of disease scale and developed uncertainty estimation techniques for these methods. We showed that classifier scores on arbitrary scales can be calibrated to the probability of disease scale without affecting their discrimination performance. With a finite dataset to train the calibration function, it is important to accompany the probability estimate with its confidence interval. Our simulations indicate that, when a dataset used for finding the transformation for calibration is also used for estimating the performance of calibration, the resubstitution bias exists for a performance metric involving the truth states in evaluating the calibration performance. However, the bias is small for the parametric and semi-parametric methods when the sample size is moderate to large (>100 per class).

The performance of a classifier is largely dependent on the size and representativeness of data used for its training. In circumstances where accumulation and/or labeling of training samples is difficult or expensive, such as medical applications, data augmentation can potentially be used to alleviate the limitations of small datasets. We have previously developed an image blending tool that allows users to modify or supplement an existing CT or mammography dataset by seamlessly inserting a lesion extracted from a source image into a target image. This tool also provides the option to apply various types of transformations to different properties of the lesion prior to its insertion into a new location. In this study, we used this tool to create synthetic samples that appear realistic in chest CT. We then augmented different size training sets with these artificial samples, and investigated the effect of the augmentation on training various classifiers for the detection of lung nodules. Our results indicate that the proposed lesion insertion method can improve classifier performance for small training datasets, and thereby help reduce the need to acquire and label actual patient data.