Along with the international trade and economic ties, international stock markets are performing increasingly closely. This paper investigates the volatilities and the return co-movements among three stock markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, and the United States, from January 1, 2007, to July 5, 2019. We use the MIDAS framework to separately characterize short-term and long-term features. The results reveal that different market volatilities have different sensitivities to the same events. After the second half of 2016, the volatility of China’s stock market gradually dropped below that of the other two markets. As for market co-movements, the return correlation between China and Hong Kong rose sharply after 2007. Although the co-movements for return rates among these three stock markets possess mutual dynamic synchronization features, deviations exist occasionally due to the emotional transfer of funds in the international market when a significant economic or financial event occurs. The analysis suggests that countries should stabilize the financial investment environment and guard against hot money activities.
This paper discusses Nadaraya-Watson estimators for the unknown coefficients in second-order diffusion model with jumps constructed with Gamma asymmetric kernels. Compared with existing nonparametric estimators constructed with Gaussian symmetric kernels, local constant smoothing using Gamma asymmetric kernels possesses some extra advantages such as boundary bias correction, variance reduction and resistance to sparse design points, which is validated through theoretical details and finite sample simulation study. Under the regular conditions, the weak consistency and the asymptotic normality of these estimators are presented. Finally, the statistical advantages of the nonparametric estimators are depicted through 5-minute high-frequency data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China.
The global financial market shocks have intensified due to the COVID-19 epidemic and other impacts, and the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the financial system cannot be ignored. In this paper, we construct asymmetric risk spillover networks of Chinese financial markets based on five sectors: bank, securities, insurance, diversified finance, and real estate. We investigate the complexity of the risk spillover effect of Chinese financial markets and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the level of network contagion of financial risk. The study yields three findings. First, the cross-sectoral risk spillover effects of Chinese financial markets are asymmetric in intensity. The bank sector is systemically important in the risk spillover network. Second, the level of risk stress in the real estate sector has increased in recent years, and it plays an important role in the path of financial risk contagion. Third, Economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the level of network contagion of financial risk of Chinese financial markets.
The occurrence‐50 of economic policies and other sudden and large shocks often bring out jumps in financial data, which can be characterized through continuous‐time jump‐diffusion model. In this article, we present the double smoothed non‐parametric approach for infinitesimal conditional volatility of jump‐diffusion model based on high frequency data. Under certain minimal conditions, we obtain the strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimator as the time span T → ∞ and the sample interval normalΔn→0. The procedure and asymptotic behavior can be applied for both Harris recurrent and positive Harris recurrent processes. The finite sample properties of the underlying double smoothed volatility estimator are verified through Monte Carlo simulation and Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate in China for application.
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