Understanding the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to cope with change is crucial to management. However, unclear and often confusing definitions of adaptive capacity make application of this concept difficult. In this paper, we revisit definitions of adaptive capacity and operationalize the concept. We define adaptive capacity as the latent potential of an ecosystem to alter resilience in response to change. We present testable hypotheses to evaluate complementary attributes of adaptive capacity that may help further clarify the components and relevance of the concept. Adaptive sampling, inference and modeling can reduce key uncertainties incrementally over time and increase learning about adaptive capacity. Such improvements are needed because uncertainty about global change and its effect on the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to social and ecological change is high.

Extreme heat events are responsible for more deaths in the United States than floods, hurricanes and tornados combined. Yet, highly publicized events, such as the 2003 heat wave in Europe which caused in excess of 35,000 deaths, and the Chicago heat wave of 1995 that produced over 500 deaths, draw attention away from the countless thousands who, each year, fall victim to nonfatal health emergencies and illnesses directly attributed to heat. The health impact of heat waves and excessive heat are well known. Cities worldwide are seeking to better understand heat-related illnesses with respect to the specifics of climate, social demographics and spatial distributions. This information can support better preparation for heat-related emergency situations with regards to planning for response capacity and placement of emergency resources and personnel. This study deals specifically with the relationship between climate and heat-related dispatches (HRD, emergency 911 calls) in Chicago, Illinois, between 2003 and 2006. It is part of a larger, more in-depth, study that includes urban morphology and social factors that impact heat-related emergency dispatch calls in Chicago. The highest occurrences of HRD are located in the central business district, but are generally scattered across the city. Though temperature can be a very good predictor of high HRD, heat index is a better indicator. We determined temperature and heat index thresholds for high HRD. We were also able to identify a lag in HRD as well as other situations that triggered higher (or lower) HRD than would typically be generated for the temperature and humidity levels, such as early afternoon rainfall and special events.

Given the intensity and frequency of environmental change, the linked and cross-scale nature of social-ecological systems, and the proliferation of big data, methods that can help synthesize complex system behavior over a geographical area are of great value. Fisher information evaluates order in data and has been established as a robust and effective tool for capturing changes in system dynamics, including the detection of regimes and regime shifts. The methods developed to compute Fisher information can accommodate multivariate data of various types and requires no a priori decisions about system drivers, making it a unique and powerful tool. However, the approach has primarily been used to evaluate temporal patterns. In its sole application to spatial data, Fisher information successfully detected regimes in terrestrial and aquatic systems over transects. Although the selection of adjacently positioned sampling stations provided a natural means of ordering the data, such an approach limits the types of questions that can be answered in a spatial context. Here, we expand the approach to develop a method for more fully capturing spatial dynamics. The results reflect changes in the index that correspond with geographical patterns and demonstrate the utility of the method in uncovering hidden spatial trends in complex systems.

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.