This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

Increasing levels of nutrients, persistent hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and increased frequency of fish kills are degrading the ecological health of the Salish Sea. An improved version of a diagnostic hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model (nutrients, phytoplankton, carbon, dissolved oxygen, and pH) of the Salish Sea has been developed with the ability to simulate characteristic circulation and water quality features. Sensitivity tests were conducted to assess the responsiveness of the system to land-based (rivers and wastewater sources) nutrient loading. The influence of Fraser River on the magnitude of estuarine exchange with the Pacific Ocean and nearshore habitat was examined given that it contributes nearly half of the total freshwater discharged to the Salish Sea. A large region of hypoxia in Hood Canal that extends over 30-40 km during its peak was reproduced and attributed primarily to the existence of a two-layer classic fjord-type circulation and a nearly stagnant deep bottom layer that occupies nearly 60% of the water column. Nitrate mass in the euphotic zone from land-based and oceanic sources is depleted to near-zero limiting levels during summer. Under such conditions, the Salish Sea is responsive to changes in nutrient loads entering the euphotic zone directly. A hypothetical scenario involving the elimination of land-based nutrient sources results in notable water-quality improvement, featuring a reduction in algal biomass (≈5.4%), reduction in sediment oxygen demand (≈17.1%), and significant reduction in hypoxic area (≈39%) and exposure in area-days to bottom layer hypoxia (≈62%) within the Salish Sea. KHANGAONKAR ET AL.4735

Salinity is a critical factor in understanding and predicting physical and biogeochemical processes in the coastal ocean where it varies considerably in time and space. In this paper, we introduce a Chesapeake Bay community implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ChesROMS) and use it to investigate the interannual variability of salinity in Chesapeake Bay. The ChesROMS implementation was evaluated by quantitatively comparing the model solutions with the observed variations in the Bay for a 15-year period (1991 to 2005). Temperature fields were most consistently well predicted, with a correlation of 0.99 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.5°C for the period, with modeled salinity following closely with a correlation of 0.94 and RMSE of 2.5. Variability of salinity anomalies from climatology based on modeled salinity was examined using empirical orthogonal function analysis, which indicates the salinity distribution in the Bay is principally driven by river forcing. Wind forcing and tidal mixing were also important factors in determining the salinity stratification in the water column, especially during low flow conditions. The fairly strong correlation between river discharge anomaly in this region and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests that the long-term salinity variability in the Bay is affected by largescale climate patterns. The detailed analyses of the role and importance of different forcing, including river runoff, atmospheric fluxes, and open ocean boundary conditions, are discussed in the context of the observed and modeled interannual variability.

No abstract