Proactive managements, such as the resistant and the adaptive treatments, have been proposed to cope with the uncertainties of future climates. However, quantifying the uncertainties of forest response to proactive managements is challenging. Korean pine is an ecologically and economically important tree species in the temperate forests of Northeast China. Its dominance has evidently decreased due to excessive harvesting in the past decades. Understanding the responses of Korean pine to proactive managements under the future climates is important. In this study, we evaluated the range of responses of Korean pine to proactive managements under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios from four General Circulation Models (GCMs). We coupled an ecosystem process-based model, LINKAGES, and a forest landscape model, LANDIS PRO, to simulate scenarios of management and climate change combinations. Our results showed that the resistant and the adaptive treatment scenarios increased Korean pine importance (by 14.2% and 42.9% in importance value), dominance (biomass increased by 9.2% and 25.5%), and regeneration (abundance <10 years old increased by 286.6% and 841.2%) throughout the simulation. Results indicated that proactive managements promoted the adaptability of Korean pine to climate change. Our results showed that the variations of Korean pine response to climate change increased (ranging from 0% to 5.8% for importance value, 0% to 4.3% for biomass, and 0% to 85.4% for abundance) throughout the simulation across management scenarios. Our result showed that regeneration dictated the uncertainties of Korean pine response to climate change with a lag effect. We found that the effects of proactive managements were site-specific, which was probably influenced by the competition between Korean pine and the rare and protected broadleaf tree species. We also found that the adaptive treatment was more likely to prompt Korean pine to migrate into its suitable habitats and promoted it to better cope with climate change. Thus, the adaptive treatment is proposed for Korean pine restoration under future climates.

1. The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon (C) stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can not only increase C uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance C release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity and size of wildfires. 2. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species and their combined effects on regional C stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA (GYE) with the LANDIS-II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. 3. Total ecosystem C increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38%-69% with GCM climate. Differences in C uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper tree line, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27%-215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3°C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live C stocks by 4%-36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total C were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by C retained in soils and the wood of fire-killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long-term forest regeneration and C uptake. 4. Synthesis. Forests in the GYE can maintain a C sink through the mid-century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live above-ground biomass and, ultimately, ecosystem C. Future changes in C stocks in

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1. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behaviour, fire seasons and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often simplified or neglected in the direct climate-fire relationship models and dynamic global vegetation models. This may result in high uncertainties associated with existing projections of fire regimes for climate change scenarios. Moreover, few studies have examined fire regime predictions beyond the 21st century, and consequently, how the fire regimes of boreal forests would respond to climate change at the long term (>100 years) are not clear.2. We develop a coupled modelling framework integrating direct and indirect effects of climate change to predict fire occurrence probability and burned area for boreal forests in northeastern China. We applied repeated measures ANOVA to quantify direct and indirect effects of climate change on fire regimes in the short (0-50 years), medium (60-100 years) and long term (150-200 years).3. Results showed that for the 21st century, direct effects of climate change are likely to exert a stronger influence on fire regimes than indirect effects. However, increases in fire occurrence probability and burned area will accelerate the transition of boreal forests to temperate forests in the period 2100-2200, and thereby reduce fire occurrence probability and burned area. This suggests that vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. 4. Synthesis and applications. Vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. This finding suggested that policymakers may consider adaptive management by planting deciduous | 1337

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